Recent Updates
- Thailand: Reserve Money (Mar)
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- Japan: Corporate Goods Price Index, Finl Institutions Lending (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 18, 2021
• Leaders' gain is slowest since last April's decline.
• Breadth of component growth continues to moderate.
• Coincident indicators ease.
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) during February after an unrevised 0.5% January gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 0.3% rise. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Performance amongst the component series varied greatly. Fewer initial unemployment insurance claims, higher stock prices, a higher ISM new orders index and the slope of the interest rate yield curve provided the bulk of the upward influence on the overall leading index. Fewer building permits, a shorter average workweek and diminished consumer expectations for business/economic conditions offset these gains.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators eased 0.1% (-4.1% y/y) during February for the second month in the last three. Three of the four component series contributed positively to the index including payroll employment, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales. A decline in industrial production offset these gains.
The Index of Lagging Indicators improved 0.2% (-4.0% y/y) during February following a 2.3% January decline, revised from -0.6%. Higher labor costs, a higher consumer installment credit/income ratio, and an increased change in the services CPI contributed positively but was offset by a shorter average duration of unemployment.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 | 1.6 | 5.6 |
Coincident | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -4.1 | -4.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
Lagging | 0.2 | -2.3 | 0.4 | -4.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |