Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- Korea: Housing Price Indexes (Jun)
- China: EPMI (Jun), Industrial Profits (May)
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2021
The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed funds rate in a range of 0.00% to 0.25% at today's meeting of the FOMC. The Fed continued to assert, "The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world."
The Fed indicated again that, "The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook."
The statement went on to say that "economic activity and employment have turned up, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak." With that said, the Fed lifted its projected GDP growth this year to 6.5% from 4.2% and lowered the projected rate of unemployment at year-end to 4.5% from 5.0%.
As stated at the last meeting, it will "increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals."
The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.
Today's action was supported by all Committee members.
Current | Last | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal Funds Rate Target | 0.0% - 0.25% | 0.0% - 0.25% | 0.38% | 2.17% | 1.82% | 1.00% |
At today's meeting, the Fed updated its economic projections. The notable changes were, for 2021, more growth and more price inflation than previously expected.
% |
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Real GDP (Q4/Q4) | -2.4% | 6.5% (previously 4.2%) | 3.3% (previously 3.2%) | 2.2% (previously 2.4%) |
PCE Inflation (Q4/Q4) | 1.2% | 2.4% (previously 1.8%) | 2.0% (previously 1.9%) | 2.1% (previously 2.0%) |
Core PCE Inflation (Q4/Q4) | 1.4% | 2.2% (previously 1.8%) | 2.0% (previously 1.9%) | 2.1% (previously 2.0%) |
Unemployment Rate (year-end) | 6.7% | 4.5% (previously 5.0%) | 3.9% (previously 4.2%) | 3.5% (previously 3.7%) |