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- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade, Trade by Country by Commodity (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone, CBE March 16, 2021
• Manufacturing output fell 3.1%. Mining down 5.4%.
• Widespread declines in durable and nondurable goods manufacturing industries.
• Utilities advanced 7.4%.
Industrial production fell 2.2% in February (-4.2% y/y). It had advanced 1.1% in January, 1.0% in December, 0.9% in November and 1.0% in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m gain for February. Nearly all industry groups experienced the February declines. Manufacturing output fell 3.1% (-4.1% y/y) after a 1.2% increase in January. Mining output declined 5.4% (-15.3% y/y) following a 2.1% increase in January. Utilities were the exception in February, as their output advanced 7.4% (10.1% y/y) after falling 0.6% in January.
Durable manufacturing output fell 2.6% in February (-4.0% y/y) after a 1.5% gain in January. Among those individual industries, only primary metals and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment had increases, with declines marked in the other nine industries in that sector. Specifically, motor vehicle industry output fell 8.3% in February (-8.6% y/y).
Nondurable goods output fell 3.7% in the month (-3.6% y/y) after increasing 1.1% in January and 1.2% in December. The only industry with an increase was textiles and product mills, which saw their production increase 0.6% (-3.3% y/y). Otherwise, the biggest declines in February output were in chemicals, which plunged 7.1% m/m (-5.1% y/y) and in petroleum and coal products, 4.4% (12.3% y/y)
The output of electric and gas utilities rose in February by 8.4% (+11.0% y/y); electric power generation, transmission and distribution rose 5.6% (+10.3% y/y) and natural gas distribution surged by 16.7% (12.0% y/y). It is possible that cold weather contributed to the demand for utility output; the national average temperature in February was 30.6 degrees, according to National Climate Data Center. In February 2020, the national average was 36.2 degrees, with 31.8 degrees in February 2019 and 35.5 in 2018
The index for mining fell 5.4% last month (-15.3% y/y). Oil and natural gas extraction, which had risen for three months, turned down in February by 6.3% (-14.3% y/y). Other mining, which includes coal, metals and nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying fell 5.9% in the month (-8.4% y/y).
Output of selected high technology equipment decreased 0.3% m/m (7.9% y/y) in February. Excluding these products, overall production fell 2.3% m/m (-4.0% y/y). Excluding both high tech products & motor vehicles, factory production fell 1.9% m/m (-3.7% y/y).
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased dropped to 73.8% last month from 75.5% in January. Factory sector utilization was 72.3%, down from 74.6%.
Industrial production and capacity are located in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | -2.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -4.2 | -6.7 | 0.9 | 3.9 |
Manufacturing | -3.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -4.1 | -6.5 | -0.2 | 2.3 |
Durable Goods | -2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -4.0 | -8.7 | 0.7 | 3.4 |
Motor Vehicles | -8.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -8.6 | -15.0 | -2.4 | 4.1 |
Selected High Tech | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 |
Nondurable Goods | -3.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -3.6 | -3.9 | -0.7 | 1.9 |
Utilities | 7.4 | -0.6 | 3.8 | 10.1 | -2.7 | -0.8 | 4.4 |
Mining | -5.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | -15.3 | -10.3 | 7.1 | 12.4 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 73.8 | 75.5 | 74.6 | 76.9 | 72.0 | 77.8 | 78.7 |
Manufacturing | 72.3 | 74.6 | 73.7 | 75.2 | 70.3 | 75.6 | 76.6 |