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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
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U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
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The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 10, 2021
• Coronavirus relief drives spending.
• Revenues begin to rise with economy.
U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $310.9 billion during February compared to a deficit of $235.3 billion one year earlier. The latest result raised the deficit for the first five months of this fiscal year to $1.047 trillion.
Federal government outlays have risen 24.7% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase was driven by a 125.0% surge in income security payments stemming from coronavirus relief, economic stimulus checks and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs increased 2.6% y/y. Medicare payments declined 5.8% y/y and Social Security payments rose 4.1% y/y. Defense outlays rose 2.3% y/y so far in FY'21 but interest payments declined 14.6%.
Overall revenues have improved 5.1% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments rose 5.0% y/y so far in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments also increased. Social insurance taxes rose 4.7% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 11.6% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Feb | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$310.922 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.16 | -$779.14 | -$665.45 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | -$1,047.65 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 5.1 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 5.0 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 20.7 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | -11.6 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.5 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 24.7 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 0.9 |
Health | 11 | 25.6 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
Medicare | 12 | -5.8 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
Income Security | 19 | 125.0 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -2.7 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 6.9 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -33.7 | 31.2 |
Interest | 5 | -14.6 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.8 | 9.4 |