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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 3, 2021
• Modest job increase follows upwardly revised January reading.
• Reduced growth is broad-based amongst payroll sizes.
• Factory workforce size declines.
Job market strength moderated last month. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 117,000 (-7.4% y/y) during February after rising 195,000 in January, revised from 174,000. December's change was revised to -75,000 from -78,000. A 200,000 February rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ADP report is based on survey data through February 12.
Medium-sized payrolls increased 57,000 (-7.8% y/y) last month following an 89,000 January rise, revised from 84,000. Small-sized payrolls improved 32,000 (-5.4% y/y) after gaining 55,000 in January, revised from 51,000. Large-sized payrolls increased 28,000 in February (-8.3% y/y) after January's 51,000 rise, revised from 39,000.
Within industry sectors, private service employment increased 131,000 (-8.1% y/y) after a 178,000 rise, revised from 156,000. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 48,000 (-5.1% y/y) after rising 14,000 in January. A 22,000 rise (-6.0% y/y) in the number of professional business services jobs extended their steady monthly job gain since May. The number of education & health services jobs rose 35,000 (-4.2% y/y) and have risen in each month since May. A 26,000 rise (-23.8% y/y) in leisure & hospitality hiring followed a 50,000 January gain. Jobs in financial services held steady (-1.8% y/y) after increasing 3,000 during each of the prior two months. The number of information sector jobs eased 3,000 (-10.6% y/y), down for the fourth straight month.
Employment amongst goods-producing firms weakened 14,000 (-4.1% y/y) after rising 17,000 in January, revised from 19,000. The number of factory sector jobs fell 14,000 last month (-4.6% y/y) after gaining 8,000. The size of construction sector payrolls eased 3,000 (-2.9% y/y) following an 8,000 increase. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector improved 3,000 in February (-9.1% y/y) after holding steady during each of the prior two months.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Lessons from History, Policy for Today from Mary C. Daly, President & CEO Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 117 | 195 | -75 | -7.4 | -6.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Small Payroll (1-49) | 32 | 55 | -8 | -5.4 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Medium Payroll (50-499) | 57 | 89 | 49 | -7.8 | -7.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
Large Payroll (>500) | 28 | 51 | -116 | -8.3 | -6.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 |
Goods-Producing | -14 | 17 | -5 | -4.1 | -4.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
Construction | -3 | 8 | 9 | -2.9 | -2.5 | 2.5 | 4.4 |
Manufacturing | -14 | 8 | -14 | -4.6 | -4.7 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
Service-Producing | 131 | 178 | -71 | -8.1 | -6.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 |