Recent Updates
- Japan: Corporate Goods Price Index (Mar)
- India: Commercial Bank Survey (Feb)
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Sandy Batten February 26, 2021
• A small narrowing had been expected.
• Both exports and imports increased but at a slower pace than in December.
• Net exports begin Q1 on course to be a slight drag on overall GDP growth in Q1.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January from $83.19 billion in December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a small narrowing to $82.9 billion deficit. Exports rose 1.4% m/m (-0.7% y/y) after a 4.6% m/m jump in December. Imports increased 1.1% m/m (8.2% y/y), their smallest monthly gain since last September, following a 1.4% m/m advance in December. The small widening in the deficit in January put net exports on a course to exert another slight drag on overall GDP growth in Q1. Net exports subtracted 1.55%-pt from GDP growth in Q4 2020.
The performance of exports in January varied markedly across end-use categories. Exports of industrial supplies and materials jumped up 5.5% m/m, their largest monthly gain since August, and exports of capital goods except autos increased 3.9% m/m. In contrast, auto exports fell 5.0% m/m and exports of foods, feeds and beverages declined 4.5% m/m. The increase in imports in January was led by a 6.4% m/m rise in foods, feeds and beverages and a 5.4% m/m increase in imports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. Auto imports fell 4.7% m/m and imports of other goods slumped 12.8% m/m.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -83.74 | -83.19 | -86.11 | -66.19 (1/20) |
-904.94 | -854.37 | -872.04 |
Exports (% Chg) | 1.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | -0.7 | -12.9 | -1.4 | 7.7 |
Imports (% Chg) | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -6.4 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.