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Economy in Brief
Economy Watchers Index Improves as Outlook Spurts
The economy watchers current index improved smartly to 41.3 in February from 31.2 in January...
U.S. Payrolls Surge in February and Jobless Rate Slips
Nonfarm payroll employment surged 379,000 (-6.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 22, 2021
• Leading index gains decelerate.
• Breadth of component growth moderates.
• Coincident indicators rise is negligibly.
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (-1.5% y/y) during January after rising 0.4% in December, revised from 0.3%. The Action Economics survey anticipated a 0.3% rise. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Seven of the ten components contributed positively to the index change last month, down modestly from both October and November. Building permits strengthened for the third straight month. The ISM new orders index continued its recent rise. Stock prices increased and the slope of the yield curve series rose sharply. The average workweek lengthened following two months of stability. Consumer expectations for business/economic conditions eased for the third straight month.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.2% (-3.5% y/y) during January following a 0.1% December uptick, revised from 0.3%. Each of the four component series contributed positively to the index, including payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales.
The Index of Lagging Indicators fell 0.6% (-2.1% y/y) following a 0.5% December rise, revised from 0.1%. Fewer C&I loans and a longer average duration of unemployment contributed negatively to the index change.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -4.9 | 1.6 | 5.6 |
Coincident | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -3.5 | -4.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
Lagging | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -2.1 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |