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U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 10, 2021
• Deficit share of GDP continues to balloon.
• Outlay surge driven by coronavirus aid.
• Higher unemployment reduces personal tax receipts.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit of $162.8 billion during January compared to a deficit of $32.6 billion one year earlier. The latest result pulled the deficit for the first four months of this fiscal year to $735.7 billion, roughly one-third of GDP.
Federal government outlays have risen 22.7% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase was driven by a 178.7% surge in income security payments stemming from coronavirus relief, economic stimulus checks and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs increased 28.7% y/y. Medicare payments grew 9.7% y/y and Social Security payments rose 4.2% y/y. Defense outlays rose 3.3% y/y so far in FY'21 but interest payments declined 14.2%.
Overall revenues have improved 0.8% y/y so far this fiscal year. The recession has lowered individual income tax payments by 3.8% y/y so far in FY'21 but corporate tax payments have improved. Social insurance taxes rose 5.9% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 14.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Jan | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$162.83 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.16 | -$779.14 | -$665.45 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | -$735.73 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | 34.3% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | -3.8 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 12.4 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | -14.3 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.5 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 22.7 | 47.3 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 0.9 |
Health | 11 | 28.7 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
Medicare | 12 | -9.7 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
Income Security | 19 | 178.7 | 145.3 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -4.4 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 10.5 | 73.1 | 43.2 | -33.7 | 31.2 |
Interest | 5 | -14.2 | -8.1 | 15.4 | 23.8 | 9.4 |