Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 10, 2021
• Deficit share of GDP continues to balloon.
• Outlay surge driven by coronavirus aid.
• Higher unemployment reduces personal tax receipts.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit of $162.8 billion during January compared to a deficit of $32.6 billion one year earlier. The latest result pulled the deficit for the first four months of this fiscal year to $735.7 billion, roughly one-third of GDP.
Federal government outlays have risen 22.7% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase was driven by a 178.7% surge in income security payments stemming from coronavirus relief, economic stimulus checks and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs increased 28.7% y/y. Medicare payments grew 9.7% y/y and Social Security payments rose 4.2% y/y. Defense outlays rose 3.3% y/y so far in FY'21 but interest payments declined 14.2%.
Overall revenues have improved 0.8% y/y so far this fiscal year. The recession has lowered individual income tax payments by 3.8% y/y so far in FY'21 but corporate tax payments have improved. Social insurance taxes rose 5.9% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 14.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Jan | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$162.83 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.16 | -$779.14 | -$665.45 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -$735.73 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 34.3% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| % of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | -3.8 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 12.4 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | -14.3 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.5 | -0.8 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 22.7 | 47.3 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| National Defense | 11 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 0.9 |
| Health | 11 | 28.7 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Medicare | 12 | -9.7 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| Income Security | 19 | 178.7 | 145.3 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| Social Security | 17 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -4.4 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 10.5 | 73.1 | 43.2 | -33.7 | 31.2 |
| Interest | 5 | -14.2 | -8.1 | 15.4 | 23.8 | 9.4 |
