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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 9, 2021
• Both the job openings rate & the number of openings improve.
• Hiring activity weakens.
• Layoffs decline as the level of quits increases.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of December, the total job openings rate rose to 4.5% and reversed November's decline to an unrevised 4.4%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. The December figure remained below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate fell sharply to 3.9% following five months at 4.2%. The overall layoff and discharge rate eased to 1.3% and reversed some of its November increase to 1.4%. The quits rate rose sharply to 2.3%, the highest level since February and up from a 1.4% low during April. These figures date back to December 2000.
The job openings level rose 1.1% (1.4% y/y) to 6.646 million. The private-sector job openings rate rose to 4.8%, its highest level since October 2019. It remained below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate fell sharply to 2.6% and remained well below its 5.4% peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing also fell m/m to 3.7% from 4.2%, but remained up from 2.4% in March. The rate in leisure & hospitality fell to 5.5%, remaining below the record 6.6% in June. The rate in professional & business services surged to 6.9% and matched the record high. The government sector job openings rate fell sharply to 2.7%, a two year low.
In December, the level of hiring declined 6.7% (-6.5% y/y) to 5.539 million. The hiring rate fell sharply to 3.9%, remaining well below the record 5.4% in May. The private sector hiring rate declined sharply to 4.3%. The government sector hiring rate eased to 1.5%, down from 2.5% in August. The factory sector hiring rate held steady at 3.2%. The leisure & hospitality rate fell sharply to 6.0% from 8.0%. The professional & business service sector hiring rate eased to 5.7%. The education & health services hiring rate slipped m/m to 3.0%, a nine-month low.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The separations rate of 3.8% in December compared to the record 9.7% in March. The level of separations declined 5.2% y/y. Private sector separations fell 5.3% y/y but the separations rate was steady at 4.2%, above the record low of 3.5% in May.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector eased to 1.4% but remained above the record low of 1.1% in September. The rate fell sharply m/m to 0.4% in government. The lessened 2.3% rate in construction still was above the record low of 1.9% in September and compared to 1.0% in manufacturing. The higher 1.1% rate in the information sector remained below the record 3.7% in April. It compared to a steady 0.6% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate fell slightly to 1.8% but was down from an all-time high of 5.1% in March.
The higher quits rate of 2.6% in the private sector remained up from 1.6% in April. It compared to a steady 0.8% in government. In manufacturing, the job quits rate was steady m/m at 1.9% and remained up from 0.9% in April. In finance, the quits rate fell sharply to 1.1% and remained below the high of 1.8% in August of 2019. The quits rate in professional & business services eased to 2.9% after surging to 3.1% in September which was the highest level since January. In leisure & hospitality, the quits rate surged to a near-record 4.9%. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 6.4% y/y. In government, the level of quits declined 14.2% y/y.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Climate Change Is a Source of Financial Risk from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
Total (000s) | 6,646 | 6,572 | 6,632 | 6,552 | 7,303 | 6,235 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,539 | 5,935 | 5,912 | 5,927 | 5,762 | 5,426 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,812 | 2,055 | 1,676 | 1,893 | 1,832 | 1,736 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Total (000s) | 3,286 | 3,180 | 3,150 | 3,528 | 3,415 | 3,222 |