Recent Updates
- Kyrgyz Republic: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- Ukraine: IP (Jan)
- Palestine: Central Bank Survey (Feb)
- UK: Mortgage Lending & Administration Return (Q4)
- Bulgaria: Labor Productivity, Hours Worked (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Economy Watchers Index Improves as Outlook Spurts
The economy watchers current index improved smartly to 41.3 in February from 31.2 in January...
U.S. Payrolls Surge in February and Jobless Rate Slips
Nonfarm payroll employment surged 379,000 (-6.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca February 1, 2021
Nine reporters in the table have manufacturing sectors that took a step back in January while eight improved on the month. The unweighted average PMI reading edged lower to 53.9 in January from 54.2 in December. In Asia, the unweighted average moves higher by a tick. There was a step back for manufacturing in the euro area in January. The Markit gauge for the U.S. improved (while the ISM, not shown here, backtracked). There is a good deal of PMI shifting about this month without a whole lot of trend. The graph features selected Asia reporters and their results are all over the map in terms of levels as well as changes.
Recently PMI gauges have tended to show more improvements month-to-month than deteriorations. However, the average diffusion value that measures improvement period-to-period shows all reporters improving over 12 months compared to 12 months before that and only 70.6% are improving over sixmonths compared to their level of six months ago, Over three months, that percentage ratio slips to 64.7% improving. So the rate of progress is slowing, but that is not surprising as PMI values move higher and leave fewer below 50, a level that signals contraction.
There are only five readings with decelerating three-month averages in January compared to six-month (France, China, Brazil, Malaysia, and Turkey). Also, over three months, only four reporters have a three-month average below 50 (Mexico, Japan, Russia, and Malaysia). Over six months, all PMIs are improving and only four are below 50 (same four).
There is clear healing in the manufacturing sector- a marked contrast with services. Four countries have their highest PMI readings since January 2016. Five countries have queue standings that are in the top 5% of their respective queues of data since January 2016. Only four countries have queue standings below their 50th percentile (below their medians for the period).
Looking back at the changes since January last year, just before the virus struck, all countries in the table have manufacturing reading that are stronger on balance except Mexico. Germany has done the best, followed by Taiwan, the U.S. and the euro area as a whole. Beside Mexico, the weakest rebound readings are from Malaysia, China, France, and Vietnam.