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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 27, 2021
• Orders increase is reduced by orders for commercial aircraft decline.
• Bookings less transportation orders remain firm.
• Shipments surge while inventories & order backlogs ease.
Factory sector activity remains on a firm footing. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased 0.2% during December (1.4% y/y) after strengthening 1.2% in November, revised from 0.9%. October's 1.8% rise was unrevised. A 1.0% m/m gain had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise was the eighth consecutive monthly increase. New orders have risen 46.5% since the low in April.
Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft continued to firm last month, up 0.6% (8.4% y/y) following a 1.0% November gain. It was the weakest of eight consecutive monthly increases.
Orders for transportation equipment declined 1.0% (-7.9% y/y) in December after strengthening 1.9% in November. The decline was due to a sharp fall in commercial aircraft orders. Orders for motor vehicles and parts orders rose 1.4% (7.7% y/y). Offsetting the transportation decline was a 2.4% rise (5.7% y/y) in machinery orders which followed a 1.4% gain. Communications equipment orders improved 0.3% (23. 1% y/y) but computer & related product orders fell 3.4% (+6.9% y/y). Orders for primary metals rose 0.6% (1.8% y/y) and fabricated metals orders improved 0.6%. Electrical equipment orders edged 0.1% higher (1.2% y/y).
Total shipments surged 1.4% (3.4% y/y) in December after a 0.4% rise. Shipments of core capital goods rose 0.5% (6.6% y/y), the same as in November. Shipments of transportation products surged 2.7% (1.5% y/y) after improving 0.6%. Shipments excluding transportation rose 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Machinery shipments improved 0.8% (0.4% y/y) while electrical equipment shipments improved 0.7% (-1.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods eased 0.3% (-6.5% y/y) and have been falling since September 2018. Excluding transportation, order backlogs rose 1.0% (3.7% y/y), the same as in November.
Inventories of durable goods edged 0.2 % lower (+0.6% y/y) following three straight monthly increases. Excluding transportation, inventories increased 0.8% (-1.5% y/y), the largest of four consecutive monthly gains.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | -7.2 | -1.5 | 7.1 |
Transportation | -1.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | -7.9 | -20.1 | -4.8 | 9.2 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 6.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 5.9 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
Shipments | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.4 | -5.2 | 0.8 | 6.6 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 6.6 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.7 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -1.8 | 3.9 |
Inventories | -0.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 5.2 |