Recent Updates
- Sweden: NCI Economic Activity Index (Mar)
- Ukraine: IP, Industrial Turnover (Jan)
- OECD: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (Feb)
- US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Feb)
- Kyrgyz Republic: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Economy Watchers Index Improves as Outlook Spurts
The economy watchers current index improved smartly to 41.3 in February from 31.2 in January...
U.S. Payrolls Surge in February and Jobless Rate Slips
Nonfarm payroll employment surged 379,000 (-6.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 25, 2021
• Index suggests modest pickup in economic growth.
• Production & income strengthen.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December from November's 0.31, revised from 0.27. Despite the increase, the index remained near recent lows.
The three-month moving average, which smoothes out the m/m volatility in the index, rose last month to 0.44 from 0.13 in November. During the last 20 years, there has been a 91% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
Only the Production & Income component of the index rose last month with an increase to 0.44, the highest level since July. The Employment, Unemployment & Income series eased to 0.13, its lowest level in six months. The Sales, Orders & Inventories also slipped to 0.05 and matched its September low. At -0.09, the Personal Consumption & Housing series remained in negative territory for the second straight month. The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the components, eased to 0.54 from 0.55 as 53 of the 85 component series deteriorated.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec '19 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (+ = Growth Above Trend) | 0.52 | 0.31 | 1.01 | -0.26 | -0.49 | -0.14 | 0.11 |
Production & Income | 0.44 | 0.13 | 0.40 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.11 | 0.06 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.46 | -0.03 | -0.30 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.09 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.14 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.03 | 0.01 |
CFNAI 3-Month Moving Average | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.86 | -0.13 | -- | -- | -- |
CFNAI Diffusion Index | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.60 | -0.10 | 0.21 | -0.11 | 0.16 |