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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 13, 2021
• Deficit share of GDP continues to rise.
• Outlay surge still driven by increased jobless benefits.
• Personal tax receipts remain under pressure.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit of $143.6 billion during December compared to November's $145.3 billion. It pulled the deficit for this fiscal year's first quarter to $572.9 billion compared to $356.6 billion last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a December deficit of $234.0 billion.
Federal government outlays have risen 18.3% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase was driven by a 77.1% surge in income security payments stemming from coronavirus relief payments and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs increased 27.7% y/y. Social security payments grew 13.7% y/y while defense outlays rose 4.1% y/y so far in FY'21. Medicare payments grew 3.2% y/y.
Overall revenues have declined 0.4% y/y so far this fiscal year. The recession has lowered individual income tax payments by 9.8% y/y and corporate tax receipts by 16.1% so far in FY'21. Growth in social insurance taxes rose to 9.4% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 14.1% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | $-143.6 | $-3,132 | $-984.16 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -572.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 27.1% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| % of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.4% | -1.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | -9.8 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | -16.1 | 5.3 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | -14.1 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 18.3 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| National Defense | 11 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| Health | 11 | 27.7 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
| Medicare | 12 | 3.2 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
| Income Security | 19 | 77.1 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| Social Security | 17 | 13.7 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 16.5 | 75.5 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
| Interest | 5 | -12.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |
