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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 13, 2021
• Deficit share of GDP continues to rise.
• Outlay surge still driven by increased jobless benefits.
• Personal tax receipts remain under pressure.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit of $143.6 billion during December compared to November's $145.3 billion. It pulled the deficit for this fiscal year's first quarter to $572.9 billion compared to $356.6 billion last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a December deficit of $234.0 billion.
Federal government outlays have risen 18.3% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase was driven by a 77.1% surge in income security payments stemming from coronavirus relief payments and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs increased 27.7% y/y. Social security payments grew 13.7% y/y while defense outlays rose 4.1% y/y so far in FY'21. Medicare payments grew 3.2% y/y.
Overall revenues have declined 0.4% y/y so far this fiscal year. The recession has lowered individual income tax payments by 9.8% y/y and corporate tax receipts by 16.1% so far in FY'21. Growth in social insurance taxes rose to 9.4% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 14.1% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | $-143.6 | $-3,132 | $-984.16 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -572.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 27.1% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| % of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.4% | -1.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | -9.8 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | -16.1 | 5.3 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | -14.1 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 18.3 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| National Defense | 11 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| Health | 11 | 27.7 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
| Medicare | 12 | 3.2 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
| Income Security | 19 | 77.1 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| Social Security | 17 | 13.7 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 16.5 | 75.5 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
| Interest | 5 | -12.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |
