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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller January 7, 2021
• Trade deficit increases to highest level since August 2006.
• Import rise fueled by higher oil prices.
• Exports decline y/y as overseas economies remain weak.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.1 billion during November from an unrevised $63.1 billion in October. September also was unrevised at $62.1 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated $65.2 billion. Imports increased 2.9% (0.3% y/y) while exports rose 1.2% (-12.5% y/y).
The deficit in goods trade increased to $86.4 billion in November from $81.4 billion. Exports of goods rose 1.0% (-6.7% y/y) as non-auto consumer goods improved 1.1% (-2.4% y/y). Imports of goods gained 3.1% (6.0% y/y), driven by a 7.0% increase in nonauto consumer goods imports (17.9% y/y). Petroleum imports grew 1.7% (-34.1% y/y). Oil import volumes declined 4.9% (-6.4% y/y). Non-petroleum imports rose 3.2% (9.2% y/y). Greater detail covering international trade in goods can be found here.
The surplus on trade in services held steady m/m at $18.2 billion. The value of services exports grew 1.5% (-23.4% y/y) led by an 11.4% gain in travel (-72.3%). Charges for the use of intellectual property eased 0.5% (+0.3% y/y). Imports of services gained 2.4% (-22.5% y/y) also led by a 19.9% (-77.7% y/y) rise in travel. Charges for imports of intellectual property eased 0.7% (+14.0% y/y).
The goods trade deficit with China widened to $30.0 billion in November from $26.5 billion in October. Exports to China fell 3.8% (+40.5% y/y) while imports rose 7.5% (24.5% y/y). The trade deficit with the European Union grew to $16.7 billion. Exports to the EU rose 4.9% (-8.4% y/y) while imports gained 5.6% (0.7% y/y). The deficit with Japan deepened to -$6.6 billion. Exports to Japan declined 1.3% (-12.4% y/y) and imports rose 8.1% (2.6% y/y).
The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in AS1REPNA.
Foreign Trade in Goods & Services (Current $) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | 68.1 | 63.1 | 62.1 | 41.1 (11/19) |
576.9 | 579.9 | 513.8 |
Exports of Goods & Services (% Chg) | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -12.5 | -0.4 | 6.4 | 6.7 |
Imports of Goods & Services (% Chg) | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 7.5 | 6.7 |
Petroleum (% Chg) | 1.7 | 2.9 | 0.1 | -34.1 | -14.0 | 20.8 | 27.2 |
Nonpetroleum Goods (% Chg) | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 9.2 | -0.4 | 7.4 | 5.5 |