Recent Updates
- US: GDP (Q1-3rd Estimate), GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Qatar: PPI (May)
- Chile: Employment (May)
- Namibia: Central Bank Survey (May)
- Turkey: Foreign Exchange Position (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 6, 2021
• Factory orders and shipments remain strong.
• Inventory accumulation accelerates.
• Order backlogs continue to decline.
Manufacturing activity continues to strengthen. Factory orders rose in November for a seventh consecutive month. The 1.0% increase (-0.4% y/y) followed a 1.3% October rise, revised from 1.0%. A 0.8% November increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Durable goods orders rose 1.0% (3.9% y/y), which was revised from the 0.9% gain reported two weeks ago. Transportation sector orders increased 2.1% (2.0% y/y) as nondefense aircraft orders surged. Machinery orders strengthened 1.2% (1.3% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance orders gained 0.7% (-0.1% y/y). The full report on durable goods activity is available here.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, surged 1.1% (-4.4% y/y) after rising 0.8% during October. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 4.7% (-27.8% y/y) as oil prices rose. Among other nondurable goods sectors, basic chemical shipments rose 1.5% (3.4% y/y) while paper product shipments gained 0.6% (3.7% y/y). Textile mill shipments improved 0.4% (-2.6% y/y) while apparel shipments edged 0.1% higher (-2.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.3% (1.0% y/y) following a 1.5% jump. Transportation product shipments rose 0.4% (-1.3% y/y) but nondefense aircraft shipments fell 31.9% (-56.2% y/y). Shipments of computers & electronic products fell 1.4% (+8.2% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products rose 0.7% in November (-0.7% y/y). Durable goods inventories increased 0.9% (1.1% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories rose 0.5% (-3.4% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 3.5% (-23.0% y/y) while textile mill inventories gained 0.7% (-5.3% y/y). Food product inventories rose 0.3% (-0.3% y/y), but basic chemical inventories slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders eased 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) and have been falling all year. Durable goods backlogs declined 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) as unfilled orders in the transportation sector fell 0.5% (-10.0% y/y). This decline was offset by a 1.0% rise (6.1% y/y) in unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances.
All these factory sector figures and West Texas intermediate oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 6.8 | 5.9 |
Shipments | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -1.3 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 4.7 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -6.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
Inventories | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 |