Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Sandy Batten December 30, 2020
• Widening much larger than expected.
• Net exports to be drag on overall GDP growth in Q4.
• Export growth slows while import gain accelerates.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $84.8 billion in November from $80.4 billion in October, revised from $80.3 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an $81.5 billion deficit. Exports edged up 0.8% m/m (-7.5% y/y) after a 3.0% rise in October while imports rose 2.6% m/m (6.2% y/y) on top of a 2.3% m/m gain in October. The continued widening of the deficit in November points to net exports being a further drag on overall GDP growth in Q4.
The sluggishness in exports reflected a 1.1% m/m (-7.3% y/y) decline in exports of automotive vehicles and parts and a 0.7% m/m (-14.4% y/y) drop capital goods exports excluding autos. By contrast, exports of foods and feeds jumped up 4.3% m/m (19.9% y/y) in November. The continued strong gain in imports in November was led by a 6.7% m/m (17.6% y/y) surge in imports of nonfood consumer goods, a 2.9% m/m (-4.5% y/y) rise in industrial supplies, and a 2.0% m/m (4.7% y/y) gain in capital goods exports.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -84.82 | -80.42 | -79.36 | -64.72 (11/19) |
-854.37 | -872.04 | -792.40 |
Exports (% Chg) | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | -7.5 | -1.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 |
Imports (% Chg) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 6.2 | -1.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.