• Consumers pull back spending as coronavirus cases increase.

• New business restrictions and limits to store access grow.

• Spending weakness is widespread.

Total retail sales including food service & drinking establishments declined 1.1% (+4.1% y/y) during November after edging 0.1% lower in October, revised from +0.3%. These declines followed five consecutive months of strong gains. A 0.3% sales decline during November had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts fell 0.9% (+3.6% y/y) after easing 0.1% in October, revised from a 0.2% improvement. A 0.1% rise had been anticipated. In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, retail sales fell 0.5% (+9.5% y/y) following a 0.1% slip, which came after three consecutive months of roughly 1.0% improvement. Retail sales excluding restaurants declined 0.8% last month (+7.1% y/y) after easing slightly in October.

Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships fell 1.7% last month (+6.0% y/y), following no change in October and a 3.1% September improvement. This compares to a 3.1% fall in unit light vehicle sales reported for November. Gasoline & service station sales fell 2.4% (-17.1% y/y), even though seasonally adjusted gasoline prices (constructed by Haver Analytics) rose 3.8% m/m. As individuals stayed home due to the coronavirus outbreak, building materials & garden store sales firmed 1.1% (18.7% y/y) following two months of slight increase.

Sales of nonstore retailers improved 0.2% (29.2% y/y) following a 2.4% October gain. Working lower were apparel & accessory store sales which plummeted 6.8% (-16.1% y/y) after falling 3.4%. Electronics & appliance store sales were off 3.5% (-8.3% y/y) after a 1.1% increase. Sales at furniture & home furnishings stores weakened 1.1% (+3.6% y/y) following two months of slight improvement. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales also fell 0.6% (+19.6% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. General merchandise stores sales fell 1.0% (+3.4% y/y), about as they did in October. Shopping in department stores continued to weaken as sales plunged 7.7% (-19.0% y/y), the largest of three declines in the last four months.

As individuals stayed home, food and beverage store sales jumped 1.6% last month (10.9% y/y), the first increase in four months. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales fell 0.7% (+3.5% y/y) for a second consecutive month.

Eating out was sharply reduced as restaurant and drinking establishment sales weakened 4.0% last month (-17.2% y/y), after strengthening for five of the prior six months.

The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.