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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 11, 2020
• A decline in income more than offsets lower principal & interest payments.
• October's slip in affordability follows upward revisions to earlier data.
The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index slipped 0.1% to 167.2 during October from 167.4 in September, revised from 159.6. Affordability was 8.5% below its April high. This month's release included revisions back through 2019.
A rise to 15.0% in mortgage payments as a percent of income caused the decline in affordability. That share was 13.7% in April, but below the June 2018 high of 18.1%. Principal & interest payments eased 0.4% (+4.1% y/y) to $1,055 but income slipped 0.5% (+3.3% y/y) to $84,672. The effective mortgage interest rate declined to a record low of 2.88% in October (figures date back to 1981). The median sales price, which was reported last month, increased 0.5% (16.0% y/y) to a record high of $317,700
The Housing Affordability Index equals 100 when median family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. A rising index indicates an increasing number of buyers can qualify for a mortgage to purchase the median-priced home. Data on Home Affordability can be found in Haver's REALTOR database. Median sales prices are located in USECON. Higher frequency interest rate data can be found in SURVEYW, WEEKLY, and DAILY.
Housing Affordability | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y% | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (100+=More Affordable) | 167.2 | 167.4 | 166.0 | -0.8 | 161.1 | 147.9 | 159.1 |
Payment as a Percent of Income | 15.0 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 15.7 |
Principal and Interest Payment ($) | 1,055 | 1,059 | 1,062 | 4.1 | 1,044 | 1,079 | 967 |
Monthly Mortgage Rate (%) | 2.88 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.65 | 4.04 | 4.72 | 4.20 |
Median Family Income ($) | 84,672 | 85,100 | 84,616 | 3.3 | 80,704 | 76,401 | 73,891 |
Median Sales Price (Existing Single-Family Home, $) | 317,700 | 316,000 | 314,800 | 16.0 | 272,333 | 259,458 | 247,508 |