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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2020
• Reduction due to calendar shifts.
• Revenue decline led by a drop in personal tax receipts.
• Outlay surge driven by higher unemployment benefit payments.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit declined to $145.3 billion during November compared to $208.8 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $200.0 billion deficit for last month.
Federal government outlays rose 8.9% y/y two months into the new fiscal year compared to a 47.3% rise during all of FY 2020. The increase was driven by a 66.7% surge in income security payments so far in FY21 stemming from coronavirus relief payments and a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health care programs increased 18.0% y/y. Social security payments grew a lessened 4.2% y/y but defense outlays eased 0.1% y/y in FY21. Medicare payments declined 15.0% this fiscal year, although the decline largely reflected a weekend start date for the month. Interest payments eased 4.9% so far this fiscal year.
Overall revenues declined 2.9% y/y so far this fiscal year. The recession has lowered individual income tax payments by 12.8% y/y and corporate tax receipts by 16.1% so far in FY21. Growth in social insurance payments rose to 8.1% y/y, and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 17.5% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Nov | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | $-145.3 | $-3,132 | $-984.16 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | -429.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | 19.4% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -2.9% | -1.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | -12.8 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | -16.1 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | -17.5 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.9 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | -0.1 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
Health | 11 | 18.0 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
Medicare | 12 | -15.0 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
Income Security | 19 | 66.7 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -13.4 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 9.3 | 75.5 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
Interest | 5 | -4.9 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |