Recent Updates
- US: Construction (May+revisions)
- Macao: Gross Revenue from Game of Chance (Jun)
- Manufacturing PMIs: Australia, Ireland, Japan, China, Taiwan, Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, ASEAN, India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Netherlands,
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
China's PMIs Improve in June
China's economy has been under pressure...
U.S. GDP Decline is Deepened in Q1'22; Corporate Profit Growth is Shaved
Domestic demand growth reduced...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen December 9, 2020
• Inventories increased 1.1%, while sales jumped 1.8% in October.
• Wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio edged down to 1.31.
Wholesale inventories grew a greater-than-expected 1.1% in October (-2.2% year-over-year). The Informa Global Markets Survey anticipated a 0.9% gain. Wholesale inventory swings can have a meaningful impact on GDP. In the latest GDP report, third quarter inventory rebuild added 6.55 percentage points (ppt) to GDP; however, that was small relative to the 25.22 ppt contribution from the jump in consumption.
Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) with automotive, the largest, declining 0.2% (-7.1% y/y). Electrical equipment, the second largest, increased 1.0% (-2.0% y/y). Nondurables jumped 2.5% (2.9% y/y). Drug inventories, which make up over a quarter of nondurable inventories, grew 3.9% (14.5% y/y). Groceries, the second largest category, gained 0.8% (1.8% y/y).
Wholesale sales jumped up a greater-than-expected 1.8% during October (0.9% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 0.5% rise. Durable goods sales increased 2.0% (4.1% y/y) as auto sales accelerated 5.3% (13.3% y/y). Nondurable wholesales gained 1.7% (-2.0%) as petroleum products rose 3.6% (-28.2% y/y), partly the result of a 1.5% increase in seasonally adjusted oil prices (-26.9% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level ticked down to 1.31 in October from 1.32. After hitting a record 1.63 in April – data goes back to 1980 – it is back to pre-COVID-19 levels. The durable goods ratio declined to 1.57 from 1.59 the lowest in over two years. Meanwhile, the nondurable I/S ratio remains was unchanged at 1.05, down meaningfully from April's 1.22 record. The durable and nondurable series go back to 1992.
The wholesale trade figures and oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | -2.2 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 3.0 |
Sales | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
I/S Ratio | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.35 (Oct '19) | 1.34 | 1.28 | 1.30 |