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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller December 8, 2020
• NFIB Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in three months.
• Economic growth worries surge.
• Pricing gauges continue to strengthen.
The National Federation of Independent Business' (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index weakened to 101.4 during November, down from the recent high of 104.0 and the record 108.8 in August 2018. Nevertheless, it remained up from the April low of 90.9.
A greatly lessened net 8% of respondents felt that the economy would improve, the least since March and down from 39% in June. A slightly lower net 10% expected higher real sales and earnings trends deteriorated. A diminished net 12% of firms of firms thought that now was a good tine to expand, down from the August 2018 peak of 34%. A lessened 47% of firms found few or no qualified candidates to fill job openings. Working higher m/m were the net 21% of firms which planned to raise employment, up from one percent in April, though steady y/y.
Credit was less hard to get by a low two percent of respondents, down from April's high of four percent.
Pricing power improved again. An increased net 18% of firms raised prices, up from price deflation during the spring. A higher net 21% were planning to raise prices in November, the most since January. An improved net 24% of firms raised worker compensation, the most since March, while a markedly higher 20% planned to do so over the next three months, up from April's sevenpercent.
The most important issues for small businesses were the quality of labor (24%), taxes (20%), up from 14% twelve months earlier, and poor sales (13%). The cost of labor troubled a lessened six percent of respondents while competition from large businesses troubled a steady nine percent.
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
National Federation of Independent Business (SA, Net % of Firms) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.4 | 104.0 | 104.0 | 104.7 | 103.0 | 106.7 | 104.9 |
Firms Expecting Economy to Improve | 8 | 27 | 32 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 39 |
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales | 10 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 26 | 23 |
Firms Reporting Now Is a Good Time to Expand the Business | 12 | 13 | 13 | 29 | 25 | 30 | 23 |
Firms Planning to Increase Employment | 21 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
Firms with Few or No Qualified Applicants for Job Openings (%) | 47 | 48 | 50 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 49 |
Earnings Trends | -7 | -3 | -12 | 2 | -5 | -2 | -11 |
Firms Reporting that Credit Was Harder to Get | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Firms Raising Average Selling Prices | 18 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 7 |
Firms Raising Worker Compensation | 24 | 23 | 23 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 27 |