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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 25, 2020
• Export growth eases while import gain accelerates.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October from September's $79.36 billion, revised from $80.7 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an $81.0 billion deficit. Exports grew 2.8% (-7.5% y/y) after a 3.2% September rise while imports rose 2.2% (1.9% y/y) following no change during September.
Exports of nonauto consumer goods exports increased 6.1% (-3.4% y/y) and capital goods rose 3.9% (-12.9% y/y). Exports of industrial supplies & materials improved 3.9% (-8.8% y/y) while auto exports edged 0.5% higher (-5.1% y/y). Offsetting these increases, foods, feeds & beverage exports fell 4.4% (+17.5% y/y).
Imports of autos increased 3.2% (10.2% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods imports gained 2.2% (9.1% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies & materials gained 3.1% (-9.1% y/y) while capital goods imports rose 2.4% (1.3% y/y). Working the other way, imports of foods, feeds & beverages declined 1.3% (+6.8 y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -80.29 | -79.36 | -83.08 | -66.32 (10/19) |
-854.37 | -872.04 | -792.40 |
Exports (% Chg) | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -7.5 | -1.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 |
Imports (% Chg) | 2.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | -1.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.