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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 18, 2020
• Single-family home building increases to highest level since April 2007.
• Building permits hold steady.
Housing starts rose 4.9% (14.2% y/y) in October to 1.530 million (SAAR) from 1.459 million in September, revised from 1.415 million. Despite the increase, starts remained 5.4% below their January peak of 1.617 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.450 million starts in October.
Starts of single-family homes rose 6.4% last month (29.4% y/y) to 1.179 million from an unrevised 1.108 million in September. The latest level was roughly two-thirds above the April low. Accompanying the increase in single-family starts was steadiness in multi-family starts at 351,000 (-18.2% y/y), revised from 307,000. Starts have been at that level for three months, down 44.1% from the peak this past January.
Building permits were unchanged at a little-revised 1.545 million (2.8% y/y). It remained the highest level of permits since March 2007. Permits to build single-family homes rose 0.6% (20.6% y/y) to 1.120 million following five months of strong increase. Permits to build multi-family homes eased 1.6% (-26.0% y/y) to 425,000 after falling 1.4% in September.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast weakened by 38.6% (-32.8% y/y) to 78,000, the lowest level since May. In the South, starts rose 12.9% (24.3% y/y) to 859,000 following September's 8.1% rise. In the West, starts improved 4.2% (5.4% y/y) to 374,000, the highest level since February. Housing starts in the Midwest gained 3.3% (23.0% y/y) to 219,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The Federal Reserve's New Framework: Context and Consequences from Fed Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida can be found here.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,530 | 1,459 | 1,373 | 14.2 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
Single-Family | 1,179 | 1,108 | 1,022 | 29.4 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
Multi-Family | 351 | 351 | 351 | -18.2 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 78 | 127 | 86 | -32.8 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
Midwest | 219 | 212 | 241 | 23.0 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
South | 859 | 761 | 704 | 24.3 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
West | 374 | 359 | 342 | 5.4 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
Building Permits | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,476 | 2.8 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |