• Consumers barely lift spending following five months of strong increases.

• Spending slowdown widens.

As the number of coronavirus cases increased, total retail sales including food service & drinking establishments improved just 0.3% (5.7% y/y) during October following a 1.6% September increase, revised from 1.9%. August sales strengthened 1.4%, revised from 0.6%. A 0.4% October increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts edged 0.2% higher (4.4% y/y) after improving 1.2% in September, revised from 1.5%. Sales during August gained 1.5%, revised from 0.5%. A 0.6% gain had been anticipated. In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, retail sales edged 0.1% higher (9.6% y/y) following three straight monthly increases of roughly 1.0%. Retail sales excluding restaurants rose 0.3% last month (8.5% y/y) after improving 1.5% in September.

Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships in October rose 0.4% (10.7% y/y). That compared to a 0.8% slip in unit vehicle sales reported earlier this month. The gain followed a 2.9% rise in September which came after a 1.1% August improvement. Gasoline & service station sales rose 0.4% (-14.0% y/y), even though seasonally adjusted gas prices (constructed by Haver Analytics) rose 1.1% m/m. As individuals stayed home due to the coronavirus outbreak, building materials & garden store sales firmed 0.9% (19.5% y/y) after improving 4.4% in September.

That inclination to stay home caused sales on nonstore retailers to jump 3.1% (29.1% y/y) and make up a 1.7% September decline. Electronics & appliance store sales also benefited, jumping 1.2% (-3.9% y/y) and recovering September's 1.1% shortfall. Working the other way, apparel & accessory store sales weakened 4.2% (-12.6% y/y) after surging for five consecutive months. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales also fell 4.2% (+12.4% y/y) following an 8.0% increase. General merchandise stores sales fell 1.1% (+2.5% y/y) after rising 1.7% in September. Shopping in department store sales continued to be shunned as sales fell 4.6% (-11.9% y/y) after September's 9.4% strengthening. Furniture & home furnishing store sales edged 0.4% lower (+5.2% y/y) following a 0.6% improvement.

Grocery & beverage store sales eased 0.2% last month (+10.3% y/y) and reversed September's fall. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales edged 0.1% lower (+3.8% y/y) after increasing 1.3%.

Eating out became less frequent as restaurant and drinking establishment sales slipped 0.1% last month (-14.2% y/y) after strengthening for five straight months.

The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.