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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2020
• Revenues decline and outlays surge.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit increased to $284.1 billion during October compared to $134.5 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $279.0 billion deficit for last month.
Federal government outlays jumped 37.3% y/y to $521.8 billion last month compared to a 47.3% rise during all of FY 2020. The increase was driven by a 134.9% surge in income security payments to $72.7 billion, stemming from coronavirus relief payments and a higher unemployment rate. Medicare spending surged 72.1% y/y to $96.3 billion while health care spending increased 22.9% y/y to $63.1 billion. Social security payments grew a lessened 4.4% y/y to $92.9 billion but growth in defense outlays picked up to 11.6% y/y, $79.7 billion. Interest payments eased slightly to $32.4 billion.
Overall revenues declined 3.2% y/y to $237.7 billion during October. The recession lowered individual income tax payments by 14.0% y/y to $108.7 billion, but corporate tax receipts rose 39.3% y/y to $9.2 billion. Growth in social insurance tax payments picked up slightly to 6.7% y/y to $95.9 billion, and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 20.6% y/y to $6.2 billion.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | $-284.1 | $-3,132 | $-984.16 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | - | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | - | 16.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -3.2% | -1.2% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | -14.0 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 39.3 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | -20.6 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 37.3 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
Health | 11 | 22.9 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
Medicare | 12 | 72.1 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
Income Security | 19 | 134.9 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 69.7 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | -4.3 | 75.5 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
Interest | 5 | -0.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |