• Revenues decline and outlays surge.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit increased to $284.1 billion during October compared to $134.5 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $279.0 billion deficit for last month.

Federal government outlays jumped 37.3% y/y to $521.8 billion last month compared to a 47.3% rise during all of FY 2020. The increase was driven by a 134.9% surge in income security payments to $72.7 billion, stemming from coronavirus relief payments and a higher unemployment rate. Medicare spending surged 72.1% y/y to $96.3 billion while health care spending increased 22.9% y/y to $63.1 billion. Social security payments grew a lessened 4.4% y/y to $92.9 billion but growth in defense outlays picked up to 11.6% y/y, $79.7 billion. Interest payments eased slightly to $32.4 billion.

Overall revenues declined 3.2% y/y to $237.7 billion during October. The recession lowered individual income tax payments by 14.0% y/y to $108.7 billion, but corporate tax receipts rose 39.3% y/y to $9.2 billion. Growth in social insurance tax payments picked up slightly to 6.7% y/y to $95.9 billion, and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 20.6% y/y to $6.2 billion.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.