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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 10, 2020
• The number of job openings improves slightly.
• Layoffs decline but quits rise.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of September, the total job openings rate held steady at 4.3%. August's figure was revised down 0.1% from 4.4%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. The September figure remained below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate eased to 4.1% from an unrevised 4.2% in August. The overall layoff and discharge rate fell to 0.9%, down from 7.6% in March. The quits rate rose slightly to 2.1%, but remained below the record 2.4% in July of last year. These figures date back to December 2000.
The job openings level rose 1.3% to 6.436 million, down 8.7% y/y. The job openings level in the construction sector fell 31.2% y/y but in manufacturing, it rose 3.4% y/y. It fell by 21.5% y/y in leisure & hospitality but rose 1.3% y/y in the professional & business service sector. In government, the number of job openings declined 3.6% y/y.
The private-sector job openings rate improved to 4.6% but remained below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate fell sharply to 3.1% and remained well below its 5.4% peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing eased m/m to 3.6%, but remained up y/y. The rate in leisure & hospitality held steady at 5.7% but was below the record 6.6% in June. The rate in professional & business services strengthened to 6.0%, up from a recent low of 4.8% in May. The government sector job openings rate eased to 3.1% from 3.2% in August, revised from 3.8%.
In September, the level of hiring declined 1.4% to 5.871 million (-1.5% y/y) following a 0.8% August gain. The hiring rate eased to 4.1%, down from the record 5.4% in May but still in the expansion's up-trend. The private sector hiring rate edged up to 4.6% but the government sector hiring rate collapsed to 1.4% from 2.5%. The factory sector hiring rate fell to 2.9% from 3.2%, but the leisure & hospitality rate rose to 8.1% from 7.4%. The professional & business service sector hiring rate slipped to a still-elevated 5.7%, and the education & health services hiring rate improved to 3.2% from 3.0% one year earlier.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The separations rate of 3.3% compared to the record 9.7% in March. The level of separations declined 18.7% y/y. Private sector separations fell 19.6% y/y and the separations rate fell to 3.6%, just above the record low of 3.5% in May. The separations rate fell to 5.5% in leisure & hospitality, significantly lower than 32.7% in March. Professional & business realized a separations rate of 4.7% after surging to a record 8.0% in March. The steady 2.6% separations rate in education & health services remained above May's record low of 2.4%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector declined to a record low of 1.0% in September, but rose to 0.6% in government. The record low of 1.4% in construction occurred at the same time as another record low of 0.7% in manufacturing. The lower 0.9% rate in the information sector stood below the record 3.7% in April. It compared to 0.7% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate declined to a record low of 1.4%, down from an all-time high of 5.1% in March.
The higher quits rate of 2.4% in the private sector remained up from 1.6% in April. It compared to an increased 0.7% in government. In manufacturing, the job quits rate held steady at a near-record 1.7%, up from 0.9% in April. In finance, it declined to 1.2% from 1.5%, both down from the high of 1.8% in August of last year. The quits rate in professional & business services surged to 3.0%, the highest level since January. In leisure & hospitality, the quits rate rose modestly to 4.0%. The level of job quits in the private sector rose 6.4% but was down a lessened 11.5% y/y. In government, the level of quits declined 19.8% y/y.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'19 | Sep'18 | Sep'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
Total (000s) | 6,436 | 6,352 | 6,697 | 7,046 | 7,282 | 6,239 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,871 | 5,952 | 5,903 | 5,959 | 5,610 | 5,401 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,333 | 1,533 | 1,745 | 1,962 | 1,780 | 1,807 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Total (000s) | 3.018 | 2,839 | 2,932 | 3,429 | 3,400 | 3,212 |