Recent Updates
- Moldova: External Debt (Q1)
- Spain: Quarterly Nonfinancial Accounts for Institutional Sectors (Q1)
- Bosnia: GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Turkey: Electricity Production and Demand (May)
- France: HH Consumption of Manufactured Goods (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Kathleen Stephansen October 30, 2020
• Employment remains weak.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer eased to 61.1 during October from 62.4 in September, but the sharp improvement from the May low of 32.3 is largely intact. Note that a reading above 50 suggests rising activity in the Chicago area.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with similar methodology to the ISM Composite Index. This measure dropped to 56.7 from 58.7 in September.
New Orders was the only category showing an uptick, albeit small, to 65 in October compared to 64.9 in September, while the production measure slipped to 62.1 from 67.9 in September. The report noted mixed signals from firms, with some describing a drop in demand while others seeing a stable level of orders and production.
Orders backlogs eased to 50.5 during October, down from 52.9 in September, and inventories were little changed at 47.7 from the 47.8 in September. Supplier deliveries declined to 65.3 from 67.4 in September, but remain elevated reflecting the current crisis.
Employment remains weak, with a reading of 43.2 down from 45.7 in September and well below the 50 level. Firms reported staff reductions related to the pandemic.
Factory prices kept largely stable in October, easing only slightly to 64.6 from 64.7 in September.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey is collected online each month from manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the Chicago area. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 61.1 | 62.4 | 51.2 | 44.3 | 51.3 | 62.4 | 60.8 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 56.7 | 58.7 | 49.7 | 47.1 | 51.4 | 60.8 | 59.0 |
Production | 62.1 | 67.9 | 52.0 | 46.9 | 51.2 | 64.5 | 64.2 |
New Orders | 65.0 | 64.9 | 53.5 | 37.9 | 52.0 | 63.8 | 63.4 |
Order Backlogs | 50.5 | 52.9 | 46.2 | 35.2 | 46.9 | 58.0 | 55.2 |
Inventories | 47.7 | 47.8 | 37.3 | 46.3 | 48.7 | 55.4 | 54.9 |
Employment | 43.2 | 45.7 | 41.1 | 49.8 | 49.6 | 55.3 | 52.9 |
Supplier Deliveries | 65.3 | 67.4 | 64.5 | 54.5 | 55.6 | 64.8 | 59.4 |
Prices Paid | 64.6 | 64.7 | 55.0 | 54.8 | 58.5 | 73.9 | 64.0 |