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Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 27, 2020
• The factory sector continues to strengthen.
• Business investment leads the improvement.
• Shipments rise modestly; orders backlogs ease.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods strengthened 1.9% (-1.9% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.4% August gain. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. New orders have risen 41.5% since the recession low in April.
Business investment also has firmed. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.0% (4.5% y/y), the fifth consecutive month of strong increase. Orders have risen 12.1% during the last five months.
Orders for transportation equipment rose 4.1% (-8.7% y/y) led by a surge in aircraft & parts bookings. Motor vehicles & parts orders gained 1.5% (5.2% y/y). Primary metals orders strengthened 4.0% (-1.6% y/y) while fabricated metals orders rose 1.2% (-1.8% y/y). Computer electronic product orders improved 0.6% (5.7% y/y). Offsetting these gains, orders for electrical equipment & appliances declined 2.0% (-4.1% y/y) and machinery orders slipped 0.3% (-2.5% y/y).
Shipments of core capital goods rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y) to the highest level since November 2013. Total shipments edged 0.3% higher (-0.6% y/y). Shipments of transportation products improved 0.5% (-2.4% y/y). Shipments excluding transportation rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y). Machinery shipments fell 1.1% (-3.6% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance shipments fell 1.2% (-4.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods slipped 0.2% (-6.3% y/y). Excluding transportation, they rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rebounded 0.4% (0.7% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.2% (-3.0% y/y) after falling for five consecutive months.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 1.9 | 0.4 | 11.8 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
Transportation | 4.1 | -0.9 | 35.3 | -8.7 | -4.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
Shipments | 0.3 | -0.3 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -6.3 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
Inventories | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 |