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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 12, 2020
• Recent declines are broad-based.
• Crude oil costs rise.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 1.3% during the last four weeks. Despite the decline, recent improvement in factory sector activity has raised prices 7.9% during the last three months.
Prices in the metals group declined 3.9% during the last four weeks as the price of steel scrap weakened 6.8%. Zinc prices fell 3.9% (-0.3% y/y) and copper scrap prices were off 3.2% in the same period. Lead prices fell 7.8% in the last four weeks (-18.3% y/y) while aluminum prices were little changed. Prices in the miscellaneous group fell by 1.7% in the last month as framing lumber prices plunged 17.7%. Natural rubber prices were little changed over the last month but were 42.5% higher y/y. Plywood prices have been unchanged since December 2019 (-0.9% y/y).
Textile group prices improved 0.6% in the last four weeks as cotton prices increased 4.6%. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening slipped 0.9% in the same period (23.6% y/y).
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group increased 1.1% during the last four weeks. WTI crude oil prices rose to $39.40 per barrel from $38.11 one month earlier. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene fell 0.8% in the last four weeks and were down 40.8% y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices fell 1.6% during the last four weeks but increased 6.0% during the last year.
Strength in industrial output should lead to further improvement in industrial commodity prices. Expectations from the National Association for Business Economics call for a 4.3% rise in output next year following a 7.6% decline this year.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (%) | 1-Mth | 3-Mth | 6-Mth | 12-Mth | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | -1.3 | 7.9 | 18.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | -12.0 | 6.7 |
Excluding Crude Oil | -1.6 | 8.5 | 16.2 | 6.0 | -0.6 | -11.1 | 4.9 |
Textiles | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | -1.6 | -2.8 | 3.0 |
Cotton (cents per pound) | 4.6 | 2.2 | 27.8 | 3.9 | -6.6 | -9.2 | 9.8 |
Metals | -3.9 | 6.4 | 20.0 | 3.9 | -4.3 | -12.2 | 18.6 |
Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | -0.1 | 8.3 | 21.6 | 1.4 | -6.5 | -12.7 | 26.0 |
Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | -3.2 | 5.7 | 31.6 | 15.3 | 3.5 | -16.1 | 29.3 |
Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | -6.8 | 9.8 | 17.6 | 19.6 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 16.8 |
Crude Oil & Benzene | 1.1 | -1.1 | 25.4 | -19.7 | 20.2 | -20.0 | 8.1 |
Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 3.4 | -2.6 | 53.0 | -25.5 | 35.5 | -24.4 | 10.9 |
Miscellaneous | -1.7 | 20.1 | 24.6 | 18.2 | -0.0 | -14.8 | -0.5 |
Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | -17.7 | 56.1 | 151.9 | 96.7 | 22.6 | -23.1 | 20.0 |
Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | -0.1 | 25.2 | 41.4 | 42.5 | 10.7 | -4.1 | -29.6 |