• Recent declines are broad-based.

• Crude oil costs rise.

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 1.3% during the last four weeks. Despite the decline, recent improvement in factory sector activity has raised prices 7.9% during the last three months.

Prices in the metals group declined 3.9% during the last four weeks as the price of steel scrap weakened 6.8%. Zinc prices fell 3.9% (-0.3% y/y) and copper scrap prices were off 3.2% in the same period. Lead prices fell 7.8% in the last four weeks (-18.3% y/y) while aluminum prices were little changed. Prices in the miscellaneous group fell by 1.7% in the last month as framing lumber prices plunged 17.7%. Natural rubber prices were little changed over the last month but were 42.5% higher y/y. Plywood prices have been unchanged since December 2019 (-0.9% y/y).

Textile group prices improved 0.6% in the last four weeks as cotton prices increased 4.6%. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening slipped 0.9% in the same period (23.6% y/y).

Prices in the crude oil & benzene group increased 1.1% during the last four weeks. WTI crude oil prices rose to $39.40 per barrel from $38.11 one month earlier. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene fell 0.8% in the last four weeks and were down 40.8% y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices fell 1.6% during the last four weeks but increased 6.0% during the last year.

Strength in industrial output should lead to further improvement in industrial commodity prices. Expectations from the National Association for Business Economics call for a 4.3% rise in output next year following a 7.6% decline this year.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.