Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade, Trade by Country by Commodity (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 7, 2020
• Nonrevolving borrowing edges higher.
• Credit card balances are being liquidated.
Consumers recently grew cautious about using credit. Consumer credit outstanding declined $7.2 billion during August following two months of double-digit gain. So far this year, consumer credit has declined 10.3%. A $14.1 billion increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Revolving consumer credit balances pulled back $9.4 billion (-9.6% y/y) in August, down for the seventh month this year. Credit provided by depository institutions, 90% of the total and mostly credit card debt, declined 9.7% y/y. Credit union borrowing fell 4.7% y/y and finance company loans were off 21.4% y/y.
Nonrevolving credit usage edged $2.2 billion higher (3.8% y/y) after double-digit increases in each of the prior three months. Federal government borrowing, which uses over 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew 5.6% y/y. Depository institution loans (29% of credit) gained a greatly lessened 3.1% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y growth as of December. Finance company borrowing (16.0% of loans) rose 2.3% y/y and credit union loans (14.0% of the total) increased 2.8% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell is available here.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug y/y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total ($ bil) | -7.2 | 14.7 | 16.9 | 0.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% |
Nonrevolving | 2.2 | 14.9 | 18.6 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
Revolving | -9.4 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -9.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 6.0 |