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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
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The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 6, 2020
• Job openings are fewer in number.
• Hiring increases modestly.
• Layoffs and quits decline.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of August, the total job openings rate eased to 4.4% from 4.6% during July, revised from 4.5%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. The August figure remained below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate held steady at 4.2%. July's rate was revised from 4.1%. The overall layoff and discharge rate fell to 1.0% versus 1.3% in July. The quits rate eased to 2.0% from a five-month high of 2.1%. It nevertheless remained below the record 2.4% in July of last year. These figures date back to December 2000.
The job openings level dropped 3.0% to 6.493 million, down 9.4% y/y. The job openings level in the construction sector fell 25.2% y/y but in manufacturing, it rose 3.4% y/y. It fell by 17.1% y/y in leisure & hospitality and by 8.2% y/y in the professional & business service sector. In government, the number of job openings rose 16.1% y/y.
The private-sector job openings rate declined to 4.5% and remained below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate fell sharply to 3.5% and remained well below its 5.4% peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing rose m/m to 3.7%, the highest level since June 2019. The rate in leisure & hospitality held steady at 5.8% but was below the record 6.6% in June. The rate in professional & business services held at 5.6%, up from 4.8% three month earlier. The government sector job openings rate rose to a record high of 3.8%. July was revised sharply higher to 3.7%.
In August, the level of hiring improved 0.3% to 5.919 million (1.4% y/y) following a 15.3% July decline. The hiring rate held steady at 4.2%, down from the record 5.4% in May. The private sector hiring rate eased to 4.5% but the government sector hiring rate surged to a near-record 2.6%. The factory sector hiring rate improved to 3.2% but the leisure & hospitality rate fell sharply to 7.5%. The professional & business service sector hiring rate eased to 5.6% after being elevated at 5.8% in July and the education & health services hiring rate declined to 3.1%, after surging to 4.9% in May.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The separations rate of 3.3% compared to the record 9.7% in March. The level of separations declined 18.8% y/y. Private sector separations fell 18.6% y/y and the separations rate fell to 3.6%, just above the record low of 3.5% in May. The separations rate fell to 5.4% in leisure & hospitality, lower than 32.7% in March. Professional & business realized a separations rate of 4.4% after surging to a record 8.0% in March. At 2.7%, the separations rate in education & health services was unchanged, just above May's record low of 2.4%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector declined to a record low of 1.2% in August. It was a record low of 0.3% in government. The fairly steady 2.8% rate in construction compared to a lessened 0.9% in manufacturing. The 0.9% rate in the information sector was below the record 3.7% in April. It compared to 0.6% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate was a record low of 1.5% and compared to an all-time high of 5.1% in March.
The higher quits rate of 2.2% in the private sector remained up from 1.6% in April. It compared to an increased 0.6% in government. In manufacturing, the job quits rate surged to a near-record 1.7%, up from 0.9% in April. In finance, it jumped to 1.4% from a 0.8% cycle low in April. The quits rate in professional & business services eased to 2.6% and fell sharply to 3.7% y/y in leisure & hospitality. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 21.0% y/y and 24.3% y/y in government.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'19 | Aug'18 | Aug'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
Total (000s) | 6,493 | 6,697 | 6,001 | 7,166 | 7,249 | 6,335 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Total (000s) | 5,919 | 5,903 | 6,970 | 5,839 | 5,792 | 5,528 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Total (000s) | 1,473 | 1,745 | 1,995 | 1,792 | 1,796 | 1,866 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 2,793 | 2,932 | 2,605 | 3,544 | 3,446 | 3,126 |