Recent Updates
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Jan)
- Canada: Consumer Price Index (Dec)
- Bosnia: Wages & Employment (Nov), PPI (Dec)
- UK Regional: Land Registry HPI (Nov), Index of Housing Rental Prices (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drag Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 21, 2020
• Index reverses three months of improvement.
• Component weakening is widespread.
Economic growth is settling onto a moderate growth track after initially recovering from the recession. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index declined to 0.79 during August from 2.54 in July, revised from 1.18.
The three-month moving average, which smoothes out the m/m volatility in the index, fell to 3.05 from 4.23. During the last 20 years, there has been a 78% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
Two of four of the contributing indicators turned negative last month, including Personal Consumption & Housing as well as the Sales, Orders & Inventories series. The Production & Income component and Employment, Unemployment & Hours showed lessened growth. The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the components, decreased to 0.62 from 0.73 as 53 out of the 85 components improved.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (+ = Growth Above Trend) | 0.79 | 2.54 | 5.84 | 0.16 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
Production & Income | 0.23 | 1.26 | 2.27 | 0.12 | -0.10 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.63 | 0.65 | 1.93 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.04 | 0.09 | 0.44 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.04 | 0.53 | 1.19 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
CFNAI 3-Month Moving Average | 3.05 | 4.23 | -2.55 | 0.03 | -- | -- | -- |
CFNAI Diffusion Index | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 0.07 | -0.10 | 0.16 | 0.13 |