Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 21, 2020
• Index reverses three months of improvement.
• Component weakening is widespread.
Economic growth is settling onto a moderate growth track after initially recovering from the recession. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index declined to 0.79 during August from 2.54 in July, revised from 1.18.
The three-month moving average, which smoothes out the m/m volatility in the index, fell to 3.05 from 4.23. During the last 20 years, there has been a 78% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
Two of four of the contributing indicators turned negative last month, including Personal Consumption & Housing as well as the Sales, Orders & Inventories series. The Production & Income component and Employment, Unemployment & Hours showed lessened growth. The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the components, decreased to 0.62 from 0.73 as 53 out of the 85 components improved.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (+ = Growth Above Trend) | 0.79 | 2.54 | 5.84 | 0.16 | -0.14 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
Production & Income | 0.23 | 1.26 | 2.27 | 0.12 | -0.10 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.63 | 0.65 | 1.93 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.04 | 0.09 | 0.44 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.04 | 0.53 | 1.19 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
CFNAI 3-Month Moving Average | 3.05 | 4.23 | -2.55 | 0.03 | -- | -- | -- |
CFNAI Diffusion Index | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 0.07 | -0.10 | 0.16 | 0.13 |