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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2020
• New home building declined m/m but remained higher y/y.
• Building permits eased.
Housing starts declined 5.1% (+2.8% y/y) during August to 1.416 million (SAAR) from 1.492 million during July, revised from 1.496 million. The decline left starts 12.4% below their January peak of 1.617 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.484 million starts in August.
A 22.7% decline (-15.2% y/y) in starts of multi-family units to 395,000 accounted for the drop in starts overall last month. Starts of single-family homes rose 4.1% last month (12.1% y/y) to 1.021 million after surging 10.1% in July to 981,000, revised from 940,000. The latest level was a six-month high, up 50.4% from the April low.
Building permits slipped 0.9% in August (-0.1% y/y) to 1.470 million from 1.483 million in July, revised from 1.258 million. Permits to build single-family homes increased 6.0% (15.6% y/y) to 1.036 million after improving 16.3% in July and 12.6% in June. Permits to build multi-family homes decreased 14.2% (-24.5% y/y) to 434,000 after rising 21.1% in July.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast fell by one-third (-47.0% y/y) to 89,000, the lowest level in three months. In the South, starts declined 17.7% (-2.6% y/y) to 699,000 and reversed half of July's increase. To the upside, in the Midwest housing starts rose 28.4% (40.5% y/y) to 267,000, the highest level since July 2006. Starts in the West improved 19.5% (19.9% y/y) to 361,000, a six-month high.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,416 | 1,492 | 1,265 | 2.8 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
Single-Family | 1,021 | 981 | 891 | 12.1 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
Multi-Family | 395 | 511 | 374 | -15.2 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 89 | 133 | 116 | -47.0 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
Midwest | 267 | 208 | 210 | 40.5 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
South | 699 | 849 | 646 | -2.6 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
West | 361 | 302 | 293 | 19.9 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
Building Permits | 1,470 | 1,483 | 1,258 | -0.1 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |