Recent Updates
- Palestine: Central Bank Balance Sheet, Official Reserve Assets (Jun)
- Brunei: FDI (Q1)
- Mexico: Gross Fixed Investment (Apr)
- Ireland: Unemployment (Jun), Services Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2020
The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed funds rate in a range of 0.00% to 0.25% at today's meeting of the FOMC. The Fed indicated that it will maintain this target range until the economy "is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."
Economic growth forecasts are highly uncertain at this time. The Fed stated, "The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term."
Restating its goals, "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent."
To help facilitate a smoothly functioning credit market, the Fed stated "In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses."
The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.
Today's action was supported by all but two Committee members.
Current | Last | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal Funds Rate Target | 0.0% - 0.25% | 0.0% - 0.25% | 2.16% | 1.83% | 1.00% | 0.40% |
At today's meeting, updated economic projections were developed and extended to 2023.
2020 (Q4/Q4) | 2021 (Q4/Q4) | 2022 (Q4/Q4) | 2023 (Q4/Q4) | |
Real GDP | -3.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
June Projection | -6.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | -- |
Unemployment Rate | 7.6 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
June Projection | 9.3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | -- |
PCE Inflation | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
June Projection | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | -- |
Core PCE Inflation | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
June Projection | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -- |