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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 16, 2020
• Growth in consumer spending was below expectations last month.
• Slower growth was widespread.
The consumer pulled back on visits to retail outlets last month, despite limited openings of some stores after shutdowns due to COVID-19. Total retail sales, including food service & drinking establishments, increased 0.6% (2.6% y/y) during August following a 0.9% July rise, revised from 1.2%. A 1.0% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts improved 0.7% last month after increasing 1.3% in July, revised from 1.9%. A 1.0% rise had been anticipated. In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, sales eased 0.1% (7.2% y/y) after improving 0.9% in July and 6.1% in June. Retail sales excluding restaurants edged 0.1% higher last month (5.1% y/y) after improving 0.5% in July.
Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships rose 0.2% in August, in contrast to a 4.5% m/m rise in unit sales reported earlier this month. It followed a 1.0% July decline which came after a 9.0% June rise. Gasoline & service station sales improved 0.4% (-15.4% y/y), even though prices rose 2.0% m/m. Building materials & garden store sales rose 2.0% (15.4% y/y) after falling 2.4% in July.
Sales of nonstore retailers held steady (22.4% y/y) after rising 0.3%. General merchandise stores sales eased 0.4% (+0.8% y/y) after a 1.1% decline in July. Department store sales declined 2.3% (-16.9% y/y) and reversed July's increase. Apparel & accessory store sales strengthened 2.9% in August (-20.4% y/y) after rising 2.2% in July and surging 99.7% in June. Furniture & home furnishing store sales improved 2.1% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.9% rise and a 39.0% jump in June. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) after a 20.7% gain. It was the fourth straight month of improvement. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales fell 5.7% (+11.1% y/y) after a 5.3% decline.
Grocery & beverage store sales fell 1.2% last month (+10.0% y/y) after rising 0.6% in July. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales rose 0.8% (5.6% y/y) after three months of strong increase.
Eating out remained relatively strong as restaurant and drinking establishment sales rose 4.7% last month (-15.4% y/y) after improving for three straight months.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | 0.9 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
Excluding Autos | 0.7 | 1.3 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
Retail Sales | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.1 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.2 | -1.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
Food & Beverage Stores | -1.2 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
Gasoline Service Stations | 0.4 | 4.4 | 15.0 | -15.4 | -0.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
Food Service & Drinking Places | 4.7 | 4.1 | 27.2 | -15.4 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |