Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 11, 2020
• Monthly budget gap increases deficit to $3.007 trillion so far in FY'20.
• Receipts decline moderately while outlays surge.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that since the start of the fiscal year, which began in October, the cumulative budget deficit increased to $3.007 trillion versus $1.067 trillion one year ago. During August alone, the federal government ran a $200.1 billion budget deficit, compared to a $200.3 billion deficit twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $385.0 billion deficit.
So far this fiscal year, the deficit has surpassed the full fiscal year deficit record of $984.2 billion set in 2019. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is roughly 15% of GDP.
On a FY basis, federal government outlays have jumped 45.7% so far this year. The increase in outlays was driven by a 142.6% surge in income security payments that reflected an unemployment rate which jumped to an average 7.3% so far this fiscal year from 3.8% during the first 11 months of FY'19. Defense outlays grew a lessened 4.5% y/y and health care outlays rose an accelerated 28.8% y/y in FY'20. Medicare payment growth eased to 13.8% y/y and social security payments grew a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments declined.
Overall revenues have fallen 1.3% so far this fiscal year. The recession lowered individual income tax receipts by 5.7% y/y. Corporate tax receipts fell slightly less. Growth in social insurance tax payments was stable at 4.9% y/y and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 2.3% so far in FY'20.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | August | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-200.1 | $-984.16 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 | $-664.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | $-3,007.39 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -13.0 | -4.6 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -3.2 |
% of Total (FY 2019) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -1.3 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Individual Income Taxes | 50 | -5.7 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 7 | -4.6 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
Customs Duties | 2 | -2.3 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 45.7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
National Defense | 15 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 0.7 |
Health | 13 | 28.8 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 6.2 |
Medicare | 15 | 13.8 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 |
Income Security | 12 | 142.6 | 4.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
Social Security | 23 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 43.6 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 |
Interest | 8 | -8.7 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 |