• Monthly budget gap increases deficit to $3.007 trillion so far in FY'20.

• Receipts decline moderately while outlays surge.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that since the start of the fiscal year, which began in October, the cumulative budget deficit increased to $3.007 trillion versus $1.067 trillion one year ago. During August  alone, the federal government ran a $200.1 billion budget deficit, compared to a $200.3 billion deficit twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $385.0 billion deficit.

So far this fiscal year, the deficit has surpassed the full fiscal year deficit record of $984.2 billion set in 2019. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is roughly 15% of GDP.

On a FY basis, federal government outlays have jumped 45.7% so far this year. The increase in outlays was driven by a 142.6% surge in income security payments that reflected an unemployment rate which jumped to an average 7.3% so far this fiscal year from 3.8% during the first 11 months of FY'19. Defense outlays grew a lessened 4.5% y/y and health care outlays rose an accelerated 28.8% y/y in FY'20. Medicare payment growth eased to 13.8% y/y and social security payments grew a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments declined.

Overall revenues have fallen 1.3% so far this fiscal year. The recession lowered individual income tax receipts by 5.7% y/y. Corporate tax receipts fell slightly less. Growth in social insurance tax payments was stable at 4.9% y/y and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 2.3% so far in FY'20.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.