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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 9, 2020
• Job openings become more available.
• Hiring slows.
• Layoffs ease while quits rise.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to 4.5% during July, the highest level since last October and up from April's low of 3.7%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. July's figures remained below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate declined to 4.1% after surging to a record 5.4% in May. The overall layoff and discharge rate fell to 1.2% after leveling in May and June at 1.4% versus 5.9% in April. The quits rate rose to 2.1%, a five-month high. It nevertheless remained below the record 2.4% in July of last year. These figures date back to December 2000.
As of the last business day of July, the job openings level rose to 6.618 million, down 8.5% y/y. The job openings level in the construction sector fell 5.4% y/y and in manufacturing by 14.5% y/y. It fell by 20.6% y/y in leisure & hospitality and by 6.8% y/y in the professional & business service sector. In government, the number of job openings declined 5.1% y/y.
The private-sector job openings rate rose to 4.8%, slightly below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate increased m/m to 4.4% but remained below 5.4% at its peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing surged m/m to 3.3%, the highest level since September 2019. The rate in leisure & hospitality fell to 5.7% from the record 6.6% in June but the rate in professional & business services improved to 5.7%, a five-month high. The government sector job openings rate held at 3.0%, up slightly from its May low of 2.9% but remained lower than the February record of 3.3%.
In July, the level of hiring fell 17.0% to 5.787 million (-3.1% y/y) following a 3.2% June decline. The hiring rate fell sharply to 4.1%, down from the record 5.4% in May. Private sector hiring fell 2.7% y/y and government hiring was off 10.0% y/y. Hiring in the factory sector fell 4.2% y/y but leisure & hospitality hiring rose 4.3% y/y. Professional & business service sector hiring weakened 4.9% y/y and education and health services hiring declined 2.0% y/y.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The steady total separations rate of 3.6% compared to the record 9.7% in March. The level of separations declined 13.2% y/y. Private sector separations fell 13.0% y/y and the separations rate remained at 4.0%, up from the near-record low of 3.5% in May. The separations rate was 6.4% in leisure & hospitality, lower than 32.7% in March. Professional & business realized a 5.1% rate after surging to a record 8.0% in March. At 2.5%, the separations rate in education & health services was little-changed near the record low of 2.4%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector eased to a near-record low of 1.2%. It was a record low of 0.3% in government. The fairly steady 2.8% rate in construction compared to a lessened 1.3% in manufacturing. The 0.8% rate in the information sector was down from a record 3.7% in April. It compared to 0.8% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate of 2.1% compared to a record 5.1% in March.
The higher quits rate of 2.4% in the private sector remained up from 1.6% April. It compared to an increased 0.7% in government. In manufacturing, the job quits rate eased m/m to 1.4%, but remained up from a 0.9% low in April. In finance, it rose to 1.1% from a 0.8% cycle-low in April. The quits rate in professional & business services surged to 2.7%, but eased to a still-high 4.0% y/y in leisure & hospitality. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 18.5% y/y and 15.6% y/y in government.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul'19 | Jul'18 | Jul'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
Total (000s) | 6,618 | 6,001 | 5,371 | 7,236 | 7,326 | 6,354 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.1 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,787 | 6,970 | 7,199 | 5,975 | 5,691 | 5,502 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Total (000s) | 1,721 | 1,995 | 1,903 | 1,763 | 1,807 | 1,958 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 2,949 | 2,605 | 2,067 | 3,612 | 3,443 | 3,118 |