• Monthly budget deficit pulls fiscal YTD deficit to $2.807 trillion.

• Receipts weaken while outlays surge.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $63.0 billion budget deficit last month, compared to a $119.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier. The deficit's decline largely reflected an inflow of tax payments, delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. The Action Economics Survey anticipated an $220.0 billion deficit. Since the start of the fiscal year, which began in October, the cumulative deficit increased to $2.807 trillion versus $867 billion one year ago.

So far this fiscal year, the deficit has surpassed the full fiscal year deficit of $984.2 billion set in 2019. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is roughly 15% of GDP.

On a FY basis, federal government outlays have jumped 51.1% so far this year. The increase in outlays was driven by a 148% jump in income security payments that reflected a higher unemployment rate accompanied by payments for the government's Paycheck Protection Plan. Defense outlays grew a lessened 7.1% y/y and health care outlays rose an accelerated 29.3% y/y in FY20. Medicare payment growth jumped to 27.7% y/y.

Overall revenues have fallen 1.3% so far this year. The recession lowered individual income tax receipts by 5.0% y/y. Corporate tax receipts fell a bit more sharply. Growth in social insurance tax payments was stable at 4.9% y/y and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 0.6% so far in FY 2020.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.