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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller August 10, 2020
• Job openings are more numerous.
• Hiring expands.
• Layoffs are steady while quits rise.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to 4.1% during June, the highest level since February and up from April's low of 3.7%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. June's figures remained well below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate eased to 4.9% after surging to a record 5.4% in May, revised from 4.9%. The overall layoff and discharge rate remained at 1.4% after plummeting in May from 5.9% in April and 7.6% in March. In a sign of individuals' comfort in leaving and then finding a new job, the quits rate rose to 1.9% from 1.6% in May and 1.4% in April. It nevertheless remained below the record 2.4% last July. These figures date back to December 2000.
As of the last business day of June, the job openings level rose a still depressed 5.889 million, down 18.0% y/y. The job openings level in the construction sector fell by one-quarter y/y and in manufacturing by nearly one-third y/y. It fell by 10.8% y/y in leisure & hospitality and by 21.6% y/y in the professional & business service sector. In government, the number of job openings declined 6.5% y/y.
The private-sector job openings rate rose modestly to 4.3%, but remained below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate fell m/m to 3.3% and remained below 5.4% at its peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing edged higher m/m to 2.7% but was below 3.6% one year earlier. The rate in leisure & hospitality surged to a record 6.6% but the rate in professional & business services was fairly steady at 4.9%. The government sector job openings rate held at 2.9% and was below the February record of 3.3%.
In June, the level of hiring fell 7.0% to 6.696 million (+16.3% y/y) following a May strengthening, that was revised up. The hiring rate fell to 4.9% from the record 5.4%, revised up from 4.9%. Private sector hiring improved 18.8% y/y but government hiring was off by one-quarter y/y. Hiring in the factory sector rose more than one-third y/y while leisure & hospitality hiring also jumped 42.9% y/y to a record high. Professional & business service sector hiring improved 6.2% y/y but education and health services hiring improved by roughly one-quarter y/y.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The total separations rate of 3.5% compared to the record 9.7 % in March. The level of separations declined 14.5 y/y. Private sector separations fell 13.5% y/y and the separations rate recorded a near-record low of 3.9%. The separations rate was 7.0% in leisure & hospitality, lower than 32.7% in March. Professional & business realized a drastically lower 4.6% rate after surging to a record 8.0% in March. The separations rate in education & health services was near the record low of 2.5%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector eased to 1.5% after rising to a record 8.8% in March. It was near the record low of 0.4% in government. The steady 2.5% rate in construction compared to 1.4% in manufacturing. The 1.0% rate in the information sector was down from a record 3.7% in April. It compared to 0.8% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate of 2.0% compared to a record 5.1% in March.
The higher quits rate of 2.1% in the private sector remained down from the record 2.7% rate in July 2019. It compared to a greatly reduced 0.5% in government. In manufacturing, the job quits rate surged to 1.6%, up from 0.9% in April. In finance it held steady at 1.0%. The quits rate in professional & business services strengthened to 2.3% and surged to 3.9% y/y in leisure & hospitality. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 24.4% y/y and 42.1% y/y in government.
The Economy and Monetary Policy in Our Challenging Times from Loretta J. Mester, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'19 | Jun'18 | Jun'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.2 |
Total (000s) | 5,889 | 5,371 | 4,996 | 7,185 | 7,280 | 6,351 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Total (000s) | 6,696 | 7,199 | 4,047 | 5,760 | 5,783 | 5,642 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Total (000s) | 1,885 | 1,903 | 7,708 | 1,763 | 1,807 | 1,958 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Total (000s) | 2,598 | 2,067 | 1,877 | 3,481 | 3,389 | 3,157 |