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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Gains Slow in July
by Tom Moeller  August 5, 2020

• Employment slowdown is broad-based last month.

• Earlier figures were revised significantly higher.

Job market improvement was notably diminished during July. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private payrolls gained 167,000 (-8.4% y/y) last month following a 4.314 million June increase, revised from 2.369 million. May's increase was revised to 3.341 million from 3.065 million. The latest figure compared to a 1.500 million increase expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ADP report is based on data through July 12.

Large payrolls increased 129,000 (-8.3% y/y) after improving 1.847 million in June, revised from 873,000. Small payrolls improved 63,000 last month (-7.1% y/y) after strengthening 1.470 in June, revised from 937,000. Medium-sized payrolls recorded a 25,000 decline (-10.2% y/y) after improving 996,000 in June, revised from 559,000.

Within industry sectors, employment amongst goods-producing firms edged up a minimal 1,000 (-5.6% y/y) after rising 496,000 in June, revised from 457,000. The size of construction sector payrolls declined 25,000 last month (-3.8% y/y) after a 202,000 improvement, revised down from 394,000. Factory sector employment rose 10,000 (-6.2% y/y) following a 307,000 rise, revised from 88,000. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector improved fell 1,000 (-13.8% y/y), continuing a long decline.

Employment in the private service sector rose a diminished 166,000 following a 3.818 million June strengthening, revised from 1.912 million. An 18,000 decline (-1.6% y/y) in the financial services sector paced last month's weakness as it followed a 39,000 rise, revised from 65,000. Trade, transportation & utilities jobs rose 41,000 (-6.1% y/y) after a 792,000 gain, revised from 288,000. Employment in the professional & business services sector increased 58,000 (-6.9% y/y) following a 276,000 rise, revised from 151,000. A 38,000 improvement in leisure & hospitality sector came after a 1.873 million increase, revised from 961,000. Education & health services jobs rose 46,000 following a 512,000 rise, revised from 283,000. Information sector payrolls fell 3,000 (-10.6% y/y) for a second straight month.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jul Jun May Jul Y/Y 2019 2018 2017
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 167 4,314 3,341 -8.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 63 1,470 1,442 -7.1 0.2 0.6 1.1
 Medium Payroll (50-499) -25 996 751 -10.2 2.0 2.0 1.9
 Large Payroll (>500) 129 1,847 1,147 -8.3 1.9 2.3 2.0
Goods-Producing 1 496 667 -5.6 1.6 2.9 1.8
  Construction -8 202 432 -3.8 2.7 4.1 3.7
  Manufacturing 10 307 253 -6.2 1.0 1.9 0.8
Service-Producing 166 3,818 1,674 -9.0 1.5 1.6 1.7
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