Recent Updates
- ** India's RBI Effective XR have rebased from 2004-05=100 to 2015-16=100. We are currently working on these changes. **
- Indonesia: CPI (Feb)
- Japan: Market Capitalization (Feb)
- Korea: Passenger Car Trade (Q4), MOTIE Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca July 31, 2020
Japan's industrial production gained 2.7% in June after an 8.9% fall in May and a bigger drop in April. While the various growth rates over different tenors (see Chart) are slowing over more recent horizons, there is no reversal in the sense that three-month growth rates are showing improved growth compared to six months. Sequential growth rates for Japan are still losing momentum despite this month's gain. The three-month IP growth rate is weaker than the six-month IP pace which is weaker than the 12-month pace. That is true for manufacturing, textiles, transportation goods, consumer goods, intermediate goods, and (barely) investment goods.
In June, there are increases in all the sectors: consumer goods, intermediate goods, and investment goods. And while this is an increase across the board for the various manufacturing sectors, it is only a one-month gain. It may represent the toe-hold for sustained growth. But it is too soon to tell.
The industrial output story is told the same from the PMI data. Japan's manufacturing PMI has been stuck at the virtually the same diffusion value from April to May to June (41.9, 38.4 and 40.1, respectively). The diffusion data continue to see manufacturing output as very weak and contracting all through this period. The diffusion data do not flag an increase in output for June.
Japan continues to be an enigma with its major trade connections dug into China and the United States. China's early rebound is not helping Japan much and Japan so far is showing more industrial weakness than even the U.S. Japan is having some late issues with the virus after having run a low rate of infection overall. Japan's economy watchers index shows more of a profile like that of IP. It is very weak in April and May then recovers in June, but like the PMI report it also continues to point to ongoing declines in activity and no growth in June.
The virus continues to stalk the global economy. And there seems to be a lack of progress in understanding what the virus is and how it progresses. After all this time, there are no new approaches to it and for the most part only the most simple and old fashioned solutions are in vogue: wear a mask, wash your hands and social distance. In an age of technology after battling this virus globally for seven months, there is not much progress in understanding how to handle it. There is some progress in treatment. But the hope for a cure, for a vaccine, is still moving though it's inexorable timeline.