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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 20, 2020
• Prices continue to increase across sectors.
• Crude oil prices are strengthening.
• Metals rise while lumber prices soar.
Improved activity in the factory sector continues to bolster industrial materials prices. A 7.2% jump in June industrial output helped lift the Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) by 4.2% during the last four weeks. The price index remained at the highest level since the second week of March. Nevertheless, prices remained 6.2% lower than twelve months ago.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group were strong, up 5.0% in the last four weeks. WTI crude oil prices improved to $40.43 per barrel, up from $25.28 in the middle of May. Prices remained down, however, from a high of $61.92 in the first week of January. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene rose 10.8% in the last four weeks but remained down by roughly one-half y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 4.0% during the last four weeks but fell 4.5% during the last year.
Prices in the metals group increased 5.2% during the last four weeks as the cost of copper scrap rose 12.3%. The price of zinc increased 9.3% in four weeks but fell 11.0% y/y, while lead prices rose 4.7% (-7.2% y/y). Aluminum prices strengthened 4.8% but steel scrap prices fell 1.1%. Prices in the textile group posted a 1.0% increase as cotton prices strengthened 6.5%. This gain was accompanied by steady burlap costs (6.8% y/y), used for sacks, bags and gardening.
Also rising were prices in the miscellaneous group by 5.6% in the last month as framing lumber prices surged 43.3%, up 29.7% during the last six months. Plywood prices held steady (-5.7% y/y) and have been unchanged since December. Hide prices rose 3.3% (-25.9% y/y) during the last month. Natural rubber prices eased 0.9% over the last month and 6.2% over the last year.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (%) | 1-Mth | 3-Mth | 6-Mth | 12-Mth | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | 4.2 | 10.5 | -6.7 | -6.2 | 1.1 | -12.0 | 6.7 |
Excluding Crude Oil | 4.0 | 7.0 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -0.6 | -11.1 | 4.9 |
Textiles | 1.0 | 3.7 | -1.0 | 1.5 | -1.6 | -2.8 | 3.0 |
Cotton (cents per pound) | 6.5 | 23.4 | -11.0 | 4.9 | -6.6 | -9.2 | 9.8 |
Metals | 5.2 | 14.0 | -5.0 | -5.7 | -4.3 | -12.2 | 18.6 |
Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 4.8 | 13.3 | -7.4 | -9.4 | -6.5 | -12.7 | 26.0 |
Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 12.3 | 28.0 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 3.5 | -16.1 | 29.3 |
Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | -1.1 | 4.4 | -12.9 | -12.7 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 16.8 |
Crude Oil & Benzene | 5.0 | 32.3 | -23.1 | -23.0 | 20.2 | -20.0 | 8.1 |
Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 8.0 | 86.7 | -30.8 | -30.0 | 35.5 | -24.4 | 10.9 |
Miscellaneous | 5.6 | 3.7 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -0.0 | -14.8 | -0.5 |
Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 43.3 | 64.0 | 29.7 | 44.0 | 22.6 | -23.1 | 20.0 |
Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | -0.9 | 10.3 | -2.2 | -6.2 | 10.7 | -4.1 | -29.6 |