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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 17, 2020
• Home building continues to recover from coronavirus shutdown.
• Building permits increase modestly.
Low mortgage rates are bolstering new home building activity. Residential housing starts strengthened 17.3% last month (-4.0% y/y) to 1.186 million (SAAR) from 1.011 million in May, revised from 974,000. Despite these gains, total starts remain 26.7% below their January peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.174 million starts in June.
Starts of single-family homes rose 17.2% last month (-3.9% y/y) to 831,000 after the 4.4% May improvement to 709,000, revised from 675,000. Multi-family starts increased 17.5% (-4.1% y/y) to 355,000 from 302,000 in May, revised from 299,000.
A 2.1% increase (-2.5% y/y) in building permits to 1.241 million units followed a little-revised 14.1% May improvement. Permits to build single-family homes increased 11.8% (-1.1% y/y) to 834,000 after improving 12.0% in May. Permits to build multi-family homes fell 13.4% (-5.3% y/y) and reversed most of May's increase.
By region, last month's improvement in housing starts reflected a 114.3% increase (-5.4% y/y) in the Northeast to 105,000. It followed declines in each of the prior four months and starts remained 51.6% below January. In the Midwest, housing starts rose 29.3% (-0.5% y/y) to 181,000 after rising 3.7% in May. In the South, starts increased 20.2% (-4.6% y/y) to 606,000 after three months of sharp decline. Starts in the West fell 7.5% to 294,000 after a 76.7% May strengthening.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic from John C. Williams, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,186 | 1,011 | 934 | -4.0 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
Single-Family | 831 | 709 | 679 | -3.9 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
Multi-Family | 355 | 302 | 255 | -4.1 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 105 | 49 | 50 | -5.4 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
Midwest | 181 | 140 | 135 | -0.5 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
South | 606 | 504 | 569 | -4.6 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
West | 294 | 318 | 180 | -4.2 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
Building Permits | 1,241 | 1,216 | 1,066 | -2.5 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |