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Economy in Brief
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The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
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Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 17, 2020
• Home building continues to recover from coronavirus shutdown.
• Building permits increase modestly.
Low mortgage rates are bolstering new home building activity. Residential housing starts strengthened 17.3% last month (-4.0% y/y) to 1.186 million (SAAR) from 1.011 million in May, revised from 974,000. Despite these gains, total starts remain 26.7% below their January peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.174 million starts in June.
Starts of single-family homes rose 17.2% last month (-3.9% y/y) to 831,000 after the 4.4% May improvement to 709,000, revised from 675,000. Multi-family starts increased 17.5% (-4.1% y/y) to 355,000 from 302,000 in May, revised from 299,000.
A 2.1% increase (-2.5% y/y) in building permits to 1.241 million units followed a little-revised 14.1% May improvement. Permits to build single-family homes increased 11.8% (-1.1% y/y) to 834,000 after improving 12.0% in May. Permits to build multi-family homes fell 13.4% (-5.3% y/y) and reversed most of May's increase.
By region, last month's improvement in housing starts reflected a 114.3% increase (-5.4% y/y) in the Northeast to 105,000. It followed declines in each of the prior four months and starts remained 51.6% below January. In the Midwest, housing starts rose 29.3% (-0.5% y/y) to 181,000 after rising 3.7% in May. In the South, starts increased 20.2% (-4.6% y/y) to 606,000 after three months of sharp decline. Starts in the West fell 7.5% to 294,000 after a 76.7% May strengthening.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic from John C. Williams, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,186 | 1,011 | 934 | -4.0 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
Single-Family | 831 | 709 | 679 | -3.9 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
Multi-Family | 355 | 302 | 255 | -4.1 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 105 | 49 | 50 | -5.4 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
Midwest | 181 | 140 | 135 | -0.5 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
South | 606 | 504 | 569 | -4.6 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
West | 294 | 318 | 180 | -4.2 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
Building Permits | 1,241 | 1,216 | 1,066 | -2.5 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |