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Economy in Brief
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Total factory orders rose 1.6% m/m (14.0% y/y) in May...
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 16, 2020
• Consumer spending continues to strengthen.
• Discretionary spending growth remains firm.
Total retail sales, including food service establishments, increased 7.5% during June following a record 18.2% May increase, revised from 17.7%. A 5.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts improved 7.3% following a 12.1% gain, revised from 12.4%. A 5.3% rise had been anticipated. In the retail control group, (which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services), sales rose 5.6% (6.3% y/y) after strengthening 10.1% in May.
Retail sales excluding restaurants improved 6.4% last month on the heels of a 17.1% rise. Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships rose 8.2% following a 48.7% increase. Unit sales of motor vehicles rose 8.1% in June. It followed a 40.5% May recovery which came after two months of double-digit decline. Gasoline & service station sales increased 15.3% (-19.1% y/y) as prices rose and stay-at-home restrictions eased.
Eating out remained on an upward trend as restaurant and drinking establishment sales jumped 20.0%. Combined with the 31.5% May rise, sales have fully recovered sharp declines in the prior two months. Nevertheless they remained one-quarter below the February level.
Ordering goods from home eased somewhat last month. Sales of nonstore retailers fell 2.4% after strong growth earlier in the year, and they remained up by roughly one-quarter y/y. General merchandise stores sales rose 2.7% (2.5% y/y) after a 5.9% rise. Department store sales increased 19.8% (-10.6% y/y) after gaining 36.2% in May. Building materials & garden store sales eased 0.3% (+17.3% y/y) after strengthening 12.2% in May.
Apparel & accessory store sales strengthened 105.1% in June (-23.2% y/y) after recovering 176.7% in May. These gains followed sharp declines in the prior two months. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rose roughly one-third (-3.5% y/y) following a 79.1% jump. Electronics & appliance store sales rose 37.4% (-12.7% y/y) after a 36.5% May recovery from three straight months of decline. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales improved 26.5% (20.6% y/y) after a 78.0% rise.
Grocery & beverage store sales weakened 1.2% (+12.4% y/y) following a 2.2% May rise. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales rose 3.5% in June (-5.7% y/y) after improving 1.5%.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 7.5 | 18.2 | -14.7 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
Excluding Autos | 7.3 | 12.1 | -15.2 | -0.5 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
Retail Sales | 6.4 | 17.1 | -12.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
Retail Less Autos | 5.9 | 10.2 | -12.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 8.2 | 48.7 | -12.2 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
Food & Beverage Stores | -1.2 | 2.2 | -12.9 | 12.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
Gasoline Service Stations | 15.3 | 11.9 | -24.5 | -19.1 | -0.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
Food Service & Drinking Places | 20.0 | 31.5 | -34.3 | -26.3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |