Recent Updates
- US: International Trade (May)
- NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Jun)
- Pakistan: Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)
- Vietnam: Customs Trade (Jun)
- Pakistan: Business Confidence Survey (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Unemployment Claims Increased
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended July 2 increased 4,000 to 235,000...
U.S. ISM Services PMI Falls in June to the Lowest Level since May '20
The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 55.3 in June...
May JOLTS: Openings, Hiring Slipped, Separations Edged Up
Job openings fell 427,000 in May to 11.254 million...
Euro Area Retail Sales Remain Weak
The graph shows the clear trend of euro area retail sales...
U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
Total factory orders rose 1.6% m/m (14.0% y/y) in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca July 9, 2020
German exports gained sharply in May but not quite as sharply as expected, rising by 9.0% month-to-month. Despite that surge, exports are still declining at accelerating rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months.
Imports also picked up but less robustly, gaining 3.5% month-to-month and also showing a steady decelerating pattern across sequential periods.
The chart shows the dramatic drop off on the German trade surplus as the virus struck. Similarly, the 'revival' in exports and imports is weak. German real orders also are steadily decelerating point to a still difficult outlook.
Real exports and real exports flows that lag one month also show decelerating trends.
The new Baltic dry index backtracked on the day but still retains an upswing. The outlook for global trade is improving, but it is not robust or even really dependable. Just today the BOJ reduced its assessment of conditions for all nine regions. Tokyo is experiencing a pick-up in virus infections as well.
Globally economic data are showing some revival or at least less weakness. While some reports, like PMI indexes, has showed some strong upward movements. The levels of the PMI readings continue to show moderation. The real problem is the new outbreak of virus that has global dimensions. Despite some sharp recovery on some statistics, the revival of the virus promises to blunt the strength of the budding recovery globally. That is the latest challenge to growth. For now, exports are showing some revival. But Germany is extremely export dependent and will need a robust international environment to drive growth. That still seems some way off.