Recent Updates
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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel July 7, 2020
All states (as well as DC) saw real GDP decline in the first quarter. The rate of decline was heavily influenced by how rapidly the state responded to the onset of the pandemic, as well as its specific industry mix. New York and Nevada saw contractions at an 8.2 percent annual rate, while Hawaii's output fell at an 8.1 percent rate. New York was afflicted by a collapse in financial output, as well as the state's mandated cessation of construction, while obviously Nevada and Hawaii suffered from the sudden stop to leisure travel. Great Plains states experienced much smaller declines (Nebraska's -1.3 percent was the lowest in the nation), essentially because estimates of farm output were strong (in the first month of the year, farm output is truly an estimate—there is little hard information available to fine-tune it).
Texas was the best-performing of the very large states, with its GDP declining at a relatively modest 2.5 percent annual rate. A fairly strong showing in agriculture, as well as its sluggish response to the pandemic, staved off a larger initial decline.
Looking toward Q2, it would be somewhat surprising if any state were to see its real output dropping at a less than double-digit rate.