Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel July 7, 2020
All states (as well as DC) saw real GDP decline in the first quarter. The rate of decline was heavily influenced by how rapidly the state responded to the onset of the pandemic, as well as its specific industry mix. New York and Nevada saw contractions at an 8.2 percent annual rate, while Hawaii's output fell at an 8.1 percent rate. New York was afflicted by a collapse in financial output, as well as the state's mandated cessation of construction, while obviously Nevada and Hawaii suffered from the sudden stop to leisure travel. Great Plains states experienced much smaller declines (Nebraska's -1.3 percent was the lowest in the nation), essentially because estimates of farm output were strong (in the first month of the year, farm output is truly an estimate—there is little hard information available to fine-tune it).
Texas was the best-performing of the very large states, with its GDP declining at a relatively modest 2.5 percent annual rate. A fairly strong showing in agriculture, as well as its sluggish response to the pandemic, staved off a larger initial decline.
Looking toward Q2, it would be somewhat surprising if any state were to see its real output dropping at a less than double-digit rate.