Recent Updates
- Czech Republic: Bank Lending Survey (Q4)
- Bosnia: Gross and Net Wages (Nov)
- UK: Rightmove HPI (Jan)
- Italy: CPI, HICP (Dec)
- South Africa: Land Transport Survey (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 7, 2020
• Job openings increase.
• Hiring strengthens.
• Layoffs fall dramatically and quits rise.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to 3.9% during May and recovered April's decline due to coronavirus restrictions to 3.7%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. These figures remained below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate surged to a record 4.9% in May from 3.1% in April, revised from 2.7%. The overall layoff and discharge rate plummeted to 1.4%, down from 5.9% in April and 7.6% in March. The quits rate rose to 1.6% from 1.4% in April, but was below the record 2.4% last July. These figures date back to December 2000.
As of the last business day of May, the job openings level rose a still depressed 5.397 million, down 26.1% y/y. The job openings level fell 2.1% y/y in the construction sector but by nearly one-third y/y in manufacturing. It fell by roughly one-half y/y in leisure & hospitality and by 22.6% y/y in the professional & business service sector. In government, the number of job openings declined 6.6% y/y.
The private-sector job openings rate rose to 4.1%, but remained below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate jumped m/m to 4.9% but remained below 5.4% at its peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing held steady m/m at 2.7%, down versus 3.6% one year earlier. The rate in leisure & hospitality jumped to 5.3% after collapsing to 3.5% in April and the rate in professional & business services declined to 4.8% from 5.6% in May 2019. The government sector job openings rate held at 3.0% and was below the February record of 3.3%.
In May, the level of hiring improved 14.1% y/y to 6.487 million as the hiring rate surged to a record 4.9%. Private sector hiring improved 16.9% y/y but government hiring was off 29.1% y/y. Hiring in the factory sector rose by one-quarter y/y while leisure & hospitality hiring also jumped roughly one-quarter y/y to a record high. Offsetting these gains, professional & business service sector hiring fell 23.4% y/y but education but health services hiring recovered by roughly one-half y/y.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The total separations rate plummeted to 3.1%, down from 7.6% in April and the record 9.7% in March. The level of separations declined by one-quarter y/y. The drop in the level of separations was driven by the private sector. The separations rate was 6.3% in leisure & hospitality, lower than 32.7% in March. Professional & business realized a drastically lower 4.2% rate after surging to a record 8.0% in March. The separations rate in education & health services plummeted m/m to nearly a record low of 2.4%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector dropped to 1.5% after jumping to a record 8.8% in March. It fell to 0.6% in government but remained up from a record low of 0.3% in December. The 2.7% rate in construction compared to 1.0% in manufacturing. The 1.1% rate in the information sector was down from a record 3.7% in April. It compared to 0.7% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate declined to 1.8% after jumping to a record 5.1% in March.
The slightly higher quits rate of 1.8% in the private sector remained down drastically from a near record 2.6% a year earlier. It compared to a greatly lessened 0.5% in government. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 40.5% y/y and 43.8% y/y in government. In manufacturing, the level of job quits declined 29.6% y/y and dropped 34.8% y/y in finance. The number of quits in professional & business services declined 37.6% y/y and fell 55.1% y/y in leisure & hospitality.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May'19 | May'18 | May'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
Total (000s) | 5,397 | 4,996 | 6,011 | 7,300 | 7,028 | 5,851 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.9 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 6,487 | 4,047 | 5,111 | 5,687 | 5,819 | 5,454 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.4 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,796 | 7,708 | 11,489 | 1,764 | 1,776 | 1,796 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 2,067 | 1,877 | 2,789 | 3,486 | 3,405 | 3,126 |