Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 6, 2020
• Overall reading jumps to four-month high.
• Business activity is pronounced.
• Pricing power improves.
Continued re-openings of businesses are reflected in the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Business Activity increased to 57.1 during June after rising to 45.4 in May. It was the highest level since February. A reading of 49.3 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the nonmanufacturing index and the manufacturing reading which was released last Wednesday. The composite index strengthened to 56.6, the highest level since February 2019. During the last 15 years, there has been a 63% correlation between the index level and the q/q change in real GDP. The composite is based on GDP shares.
The index of business activity surged to 66.0 last month and added to its May gain to 41.0. A strengthened 50% (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while a greatly lessened 19% reported deterioration. The new orders index rebounded to 61.6 and added to its May improvement from April's record low of 32.9. The employment figure improved to a three-month high. An improved 16% of respondents reported increased hiring while a greatly lessened 25% reported less. The supplier delivery series offset these increases with a decline to 57.5 (NSA) as delivery speeds picked up.
The prices index increased to 62.4 from May's 55.6. Thirty-five percent of respondents reported higher prices, the most since May 2018, while a lessened nine percent reported lower. The percentage reporting no change in prices was little changed.
The export orders series surged to 58.9 after falling to a low of 36.3 in April and the imports index rose sharply to 52.9. The order backlogs index rose moderately. These series are not seasonally adjusted and are not included in the nonmanufacturing composite.
The ISM figures are available in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the SURVEYS database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Diffusion Index | 57.1 | 45.4 | 41.8 | 55.4 | 55.5 | 59.0 | 56.9 |
Business Activity | 66.0 | 41.0 | 26.0 | 58.4 | 58.0 | 61.7 | 60.2 |
New Orders | 61.6 | 41.9 | 32.9 | 56.6 | 57.5 | 61.4 | 59.3 |
Employment | 43.1 | 31.8 | 30.0 | 55.2 | 54.9 | 56.9 | 55.1 |
Supplier Deliveries (NSA) | 57.5 | 67.0 | 78.3 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 55.8 | 53.2 |
Prices Index | 62.4 | 55.6 | 55.1 | 58.8 | 57.6 | 62.1 | 57.7 |
ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Composite | 56.6 | 45.1 | 41.8 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 59.0 | 57.0 |