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Economy in Brief

U.S. Employment Continues to Increase in June, Lowering Jobless Rate
by Tom Moeller  July 2, 2020

• Rise in jobs is broad-based amongst industries.

• Earnings weaken for second straight month.

• Unemployment rate, though still double-digit, declines to three-month low.

The job market improved again in June. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 4.800 million (-8.7% y/y) after rising 2.699 million in May, revised from 2.509 million. A 3.090 million increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Average hourly earnings declined 1.2% (+5.0% y/y) as factory sector earnings dropped sharply.

The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3%. A lesser decline to 12.3% had been expected. Employment in the household survey increased 4.940 million after rising 3.839 million in May while the labor force rose 1.705 million after increasing 1.746 million. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, declined to 18.0% from 21.2%.

The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. 

The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2019 2018 2017
Payroll Employment 4,800 2,699 -20,787 -8.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%
 Previous Estimate -- 2,509 -20,687 -- -- -- --
  Manufacturing 356 250 -1,317 -5.8 1.2 2.0 0.7
  Construction 158 453 -1,018 -4.4 2.8 4.6 3.6
  Private Service-Producing 4,263 2,548 -17,447 -9.9 1.4 1.5 1.8
  Government 33 -533 -952 -5.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector 34.5 34.7 34.2 34.4 34.4 34.5 34.4
Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) -1.2 -1.0 4.7 5.0 3.3 3.0 2.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 11.1 13.3 14.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.3
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