Recent Updates
- Spain: Quarterly Nonfinancial Accounts for Institutional Sectors (Q1)
- Bosnia: GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Turkey: Electricity Production and Demand (May)
- France: HH Consumption of Manufactured Goods (May)
- Turkey: Electricity Statistics (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 29, 2020
• Component increases are broad-based.
• Expectations also improve broadly.
The Dallas Federal Reserve reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index increased to -6.1% from the near-record low of -49.2% in May (data extend back to June 2004).
All of the business indicators improved this month as the production index rose to 13.6% following three straight negative figures. The growth rate of new orders index improved to -5.8% from -30.8% while the unfilled orders index improved to -2.3% from -17.4% in May. The shipments index also rebounded, following a severe May drop, and the delivery times measure also improved.
The employment index rose to -1.5% this month, its highest level since January. The wages & benefits measure improved to 6.8% following two months of negative readings.
The index of prices received improved to a still-negative -4.7%. but indicated the slowest rate of price deflation since February. The raw materials price measure of 12.3% was its second consecutive positive reading and the highest since December of last year.
The index of expected business conditions in six months rose to 19.7% in June from -19.0% in May. Each of the future business indicators improved but the future new orders and future shipments readings were notably improved. The expected employment index surged to 18.6%, its first positive measure in four months. The future capital expenditures also rose.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | -6.1 | -49.2 | -74.0 | -12.6 | -1.1 | 25.8 | 20.6 |
Production | 13.6 | -28.0 | -55.6 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 21.4 | 20.2 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | -5.8 | -30.8 | -62.7 | -6.4 | -1.1 | 14.8 | 11.4 |
Employment | -1.5 | -11.5 | -22.0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 11.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 6.8 | -0.2 | -3.4 | 22.0 | 23.5 | 29.7 | 22.2 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | -4.7 | -19.4 | -25.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 17.6 | 12.7 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 19.7 | -19.0 | -43.0 | -3.3 | 6.4 | 31.6 | 34.6 |
Production | 38.7 | 29.7 | -13.2 | 24.9 | 35.6 | 48.6 | 46.9 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 32.8 | 13.0 | -16.1 | 16.6 | 25.2 | 35.8 | 37.7 |
Employment | 18.6 | -3.5 | -7.9 | 19.8 | 26.1 | 37.7 | 35.3 |
Wages & Benefits | 21.6 | 12.7 | -1.1 | 39.5 | 39.7 | 50.4 | 43.4 |